High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery

GDP was a bummer, but that's the deep past at this point. Right here, right now, initial and continuing claims beat, moving the implied unemployment rate below 2% -- a new recovery low.

Wow. Nice beats in initial and continuing claims, both at new lows. That takes the implied unemployment rate to new lows, too, now just 1% above the pre-pandemic level. 

Slight misses in initial and continuing claims, hiking the implied unemployment rate by a mere 1 bp. The rest of the high-frequency data is frozen at gratifying levels -- but frozen doesn't equal growth. Let's get the Delta scare behind us and get on with reopening the economy. 

More evidence of hesitation in reopening-sensitive restaurant and airlines data. But a beat in continuing claims moves the implied unemployment rate down to a new recovery low at 2.1%. (And by the way, did you see that big beat in retail sales?)