High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery

A visible sag in the key re-opening data, restaurant seatings and airline passengers -- but the claims-implied unemployment rate hangs in there at post-pandemic lows.

We're seeing a little softening in the most reopening-sensitive areas: air passengers and restaurant seatings. But new claims met strong expectations, and continuing claims beat a little -- the implied unemployment rate slips to a  new recovery low.

A week-over-week improvement, to be sure. But we're still in a stagnant period thanks to the Delta scare.

Our Social Distancing Index has stalled out in its march toward re-opening the economy as the Delta variant narrative has taken hold. Adding insult to illness, over the same period, more intense immobilization has been associated with more cases and fatalities, not less.