Claims miss a bit -- but expectations aside, the improvement was enough to eke out yet another new low in the claims-implied unemployment rate.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, November 4, 2021
In claims, the beats go on. The implied unemployment rate is now 1.8%, just 0.65% from the pre-pandemic lows.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, October 28, 2021
GDP was a bummer, but that's the deep past at this point. Right here, right now, initial and continuing claims beat, moving the implied unemployment rate below 2% -- a new recovery low.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, October 21, 2021
The economy is re-accelerating as the beats go on in jobless claims, lowering the implied unemployment rate to a new low at 2%.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, October 14, 2021
Wow. Nice beats in initial and continuing claims, both at new lows. That takes the implied unemployment rate to new lows, too, now just 1% above the pre-pandemic level.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, October 7, 2021
Maybe Q3-21 ended on an up-note. Nice beats in initial and continuing claims, and the implied unemployment rate falls to a new recovery low!
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, September 30, 2021
Slight misses in initial and continuing claims, hiking the implied unemployment rate by a mere 1 bp. The rest of the high-frequency data is frozen at gratifying levels -- but frozen doesn't equal growth. Let's get the Delta scare behind us and get on with reopening the economy.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, September 23, 2021
New claims and continuing claims miss a bit -- and the claims-implied unemployment rate rises infinitesimally.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, September 16, 2021
More evidence of hesitation in reopening-sensitive restaurant and airlines data. But a beat in continuing claims moves the implied unemployment rate down to a new recovery low at 2.1%. (And by the way, did you see that big beat in retail sales?)
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, September 9, 2021
New claims beat, continuing claims miss, but the implied unemployment rate falls to a new recovery low. Other data is very mixed -- just how big a threat has Delta been to Q3 reopening-driven growth?