Big flare-up in the US Economic Uncertainty Index (but wait till you see Canada!). The value of new homes transactions drops to trend, but the far larger value of existing homes transactions rises to trend. Non-defense capgoods orders fall slightly, but only to the second highest reading in history. For all the uncertainty, it's hard to see a lot of macroeconomic consequences in the mid-frequency data.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Thursday, February 27, 2025
Two amazing things in the mid-frequency data this week. First, capital goods orders (non-defense, ex-aircraft) sailed to another all-time high. If this is a "Trump effect," it would seem to be an optimistic one despite the manifest uncertainty about economic policy. Second, in our "Google Trends" indicator, it appears the Elon Musk is almost three times more fascinating and famous than Trump. Elon does the impossible once again.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Tuesday, January 28, 2025
The Trump Effect? An impressive post-election breakout to new all-time highs in non-defense capital goods (ex-aircraft) spend! At the same time, our TrendMacro Housing Transaction Value Aggregate moves back above the pre-pandemic trend both for new and existing homes!
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Tuesday, December 24, 2024
Existing homes sales shoot higher, bringing activity back to trend. Meanwhile, our "Google Trends" index of political celebrity shows Elon Musk to be more fabulously fascinating than Donald Trump (of his many accomplishments, perhaps the most amazing).
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Wednesday, November 27, 2024
Housing activity ticks up, inventory-to-sales ratios tick down, and our Google "Trends" tracker confirms that Donald J. Trump is, once again, the most famous person in the world.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Friday, October 25, 2024
New all-time highs for non-defense cap goods ex-aircraft. And our Housing Transaction Value Aggregates are diverging. Existing homes are dipping below trend, new homes well above it.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Our Housing Transaction Value Index falls slightly below trend for existing homes, remains above trend for new homes. Nominal cap good expenditures remain in the area of all-time highs, two years of inflation is taking its toll in real terms. Our "Google Trends" research shows Harris winning the war for public attention, ahead of Trump.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Monday, August 26, 2024
Housing transaction values, miraculously, hang in there above pre-pandemic trend levels. CAPEX remains stalled out at a high level. Bank loans are growing nicely. And small business optimism is on its third consecutive monthly uptick.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Housing transactions -- miraculously -- are percolating along exactly in tune with the pre-pandemic upward trend, despite all the manifest headwinds. Our "Google Trends" indicator of political engagement has perked up, as you'd expect. In a tumultuous month, Trump, Biden and Harris are all objects of fascination (and Trump leads among the three).
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Shocker (but not to us). Our index shows new and existing housing transactions still above pre-pandemic trends, despite headwinds that would seem to be insurmountable. Our post-pandemic boom continues to flummox the conventional wisdom.