A Few of Our Favorite Things

A Few of Our Favorite Things
Wednesday, August 25, 2021
The historic boom isn't just stimulus-driven consumption -- it's CAPEX, too. New orders for non-defense capital goods (ex-aircraft) eked out a new all-time high in July, on top of a what is already more than a year-long moonshot.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Tuesday, July 27, 2021
Upticks in housing transactions, small business confidence and corporate CAPEX. This is supposed to be a growth scare?
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Thursday, June 24, 2021
A steady month -- surging housing activity and CAPEX orders maintain last month's high levels.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Thursday, May 27, 2021
Want to know why we're going to have a transitory burst of inflation? Look no further than non-defense cap goods orders bursting out to new highs -- and business inventory/sales ratios at virtually tied with the record low set in the post-war boom year of 1950 (the year we've been using as our model for 2021, by the way). 
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Monday, April 26, 2021
In the latest business inventory data, sales are up and inventories are down. This is the mismatch effect we've predicted, and it will lead to a short-term bump in the price level (which is not the same thing as inflation).
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Wednesday, March 24, 2021
After an historic run to new highs following the lockdown bottom, non-defense capgoods orders and housing transactions both cool off just a tiny bit.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Thursday, February 25, 2021
The capital boom continues to explode -- non-defense capgoods ex-aircraft pushes out strongly to another all-time high, while housing transactions continue near their all-time highs.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Thursday, January 28, 2021
The bad news is that small business confidence has now given up half its post-pandemic gains. The good news is that capital goods orders are flying to new all-time highs.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Wednesday, December 23, 2020
Our Housing Transaction Value Index cools slightly -- which is to say it has fallen from white-hot to red-hot.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Wednesday, November 25, 2020
Non-defense cap-goods orders (ex-aircraft) makes a new all-time high, at least in nominal terms. 

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