Covid-2019

Covid-2019
Wednesday, August 5, 2020
New case growth in what has been called the second wave has definitively rolled over, but fatalities occur with a lag. So while days-to-double fatalities is our most reliable growth-rate indicator, it is the last to turn. Arizona, Florida and Texas have turned now (California was never as much a problem). By that metric, Australia and Israel are the worst, with no turnaround in sight -- both of them were top performers in March and April, now the most at risk.
Covid-2019
Wednesday, August 5, 2020
The number of new cases grew world-wide, but fell in the US. Australia is having an especially hard time, with days-to-double deaths showing supra-exponential spread of the virus. But the absolute numbers of fatalities are small in this low-population nation, and the case-fatality rate remains among the world's lowest. See "Recommended Reading" for a horrifying story about how Melbourne is repeating New York's lethal error in repatriating nursing home patients.
Covid-2019
Tuesday, August 4, 2020
New cases are suddenly collapsing almost everywhere, even Africa and Brazil, and in all four US sunbelt hotspot states (all of which now lead the US in declining case trend). Considering the diversity of public health response around the world and around the US and the synchrony of the case collapse, we reaffirm our view that the virus is on its own schedule that isn't much affected by what we do or don't do to try to control it.
Covid-2019
Monday, August 3, 2020
Another good day, as the 7-day average of global new cases turns down for the first time since April. Japan and Australia are in the hot-zone with rising cases, but while the direction is wrong the raw numbers are small.
Covid-2019
Sunday, August 2, 2020
Except for a big jump in Japan, new cases were down almost everywhere in the world yesterday.
Covid-2019
Saturday, August 1, 2020
Other than Arizona, new cases fall in all the sunbelt hotspot states. But Florida now tops New York for cumulative cases as a share of population (Arizona is in first place). Now 9 US states are in declining two-week case trajectories (Monday it was just 2). Meanwhile, the modelers in Washington up their US death forecast by 11,000 with a glitchy-looking kink higher in October -- and not so much as a word of explanation.
Covid-2019
Friday, July 31, 2020
New cases fall overall world-wide. They're rising in places like Australia, Japan and the United Kingdom where victory had been declared too early. They're stabilizing in Africa, Israel and the US sunbelt hotspots. Florida surpassed New York today for share of population testing positive, at 2.15%. California is the only one of the four hotspot states not to have a declining two-week case trajectory -- we really have turned the corner. Check out "Recommended Reading" to find out what "fomites" are any why you don't need to fear them anymore.
Covid-2019
Thursday, July 30, 2020
Modest new-case uptick in the four sunbelt hotspot states, but no new highs. Six US states are now in two-week case trajectories, including Arizona and Texas. Testing, and the positivity rate, have stabilized nationally. So much "Recommended Reading" today -- including the suppressed "frontline doctors" video, and the infamous FOMC #METOO blog post -- there's no room for a "Meme of the Day."
Covid-2019
Wednesday, July 29, 2020
Only two US states -- Arizona and Utah -- are in two-week downward trajectories for new cases. But to put that in a larger context, hard-hit Texas's and Arizona's new-case curves in the "case accelerometer" are now virtually flat. So is lockdown-lite Sweden's, at the same time as some European neighbors are seeing a flare-up. India shows no sign of flattening the curve, but Africa is gradually improving. 
Covid-2019
Tuesday, July 28, 2020
Continued good news in most places in the world, especially the US sunbelt hotspot states. Cases fell in Arizona, California, Florida and Texas. The test-positivity rate is now falling in 20 US states. Looking like the summer flare-up is getting ready to be over.

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