CPI was tame, PPI wasn't. But jobless claims remain low, and both new and continuing beat the consensus. The high-frequency data is all very stable.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, August 7, 2025
Another low new claims number, another new high for S&P 500 forward earnings. DOGE continues to clank along at a slow pace in driving job losses in the Federal government and federal-adjacent locales -- but the scale is small in the grand scheme of things.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, July 31, 2025
Beats in both new and continuing claims, both at very low levels. S&P 500 365 days-forward earnings aggressively moving to new highs now -- and yesterday's big beats by MSFT and META aren't even in the data yet. For all our criticisms of Powell's faulty vision on inflation, we agree with him -- and this data confirms -- that there's no urgent need for a rate cut. On that point, if we were to still fault him, we'd ask why he keeps insisting that policy is restrictive? He can't have it both ways...
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, July 24, 2025
Lowest jobless claims since March. And S&P 500 356 days-ahead earnings are punching out significant new highs every day now.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, July 17, 2025
New and existing claims beat. Forward earnings at new all-time highs. It doesn't quite feel like it, but by the numbers, it's a wonderful life.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Wednesday, July 9, 2025
The June bump in jobless claims is over. New and continuing claims beat the consensus, and fall back to the low levels we've gotten used to over the last couple years.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, July 3, 2025
New jobless claims beat. Our real-time "Truflation" CPI estimator puts June at 44 bp of outright deflation (annual rate). That should take the edge off Fed fears generated this morning by a deceptively strong payrolls report.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, June 26, 2025
New claims fall (and beat the consensus). But the really terrific news in the high-frequency data is this week's attainment of new all-time highs in 365 days-ahead forward earnings estimates -- a trifecta: the S&P 500 overall, the Magnificent Seven, and the S&P 493. This is the all-clear signal we've been waiting for.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Wednesday, June 18, 2025
Another week of slightly elevated jobless claims. But there's good news in the high-frequency data, too. S&P 500 365 days-ahead forward earnings have recovered from their double dip under the threat of tariffs, and are now making new all-time highs. If you take the Magnificent Seven out, the other 493 stocks still have a couple basis points to go.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, June 12, 2025
New jobless claims are unchanged from last week's slightly elevated level. Continuing claims rise ever so slightly, and both miss expectations. That puts the claims-implied unemployment rate at 1.46%, a level not seen since late 2021. This incipient weakness in the labor market is contradicted by a gratifying rise in S&P 500 forward earnings. They're within a penny or two of all-time highs now -- and Mag 7 forward earnings have been making new highs already for a couple weeks.