Bump up in new jobless claims, and a miss versus a more optimistic consensus (which is rare nowadays). Continuing claims rose slightly, beating consensus. Nothing out of pattern with the last several months. We now have all the January data from our "Truflation" real-time CPI model, and it's calling it a month of slight deflation (we'll see soon whether the BLS agrees, at least we will if the government can stay open).
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, January 29, 2026
New jobless claims miss a little, continuing claims beat by more. Air travel sharply reduced, but that's the weather. S&P 500 forward estimates continue to soar amidst what is so far a great earnings season overall.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, January 22, 2026
Another big beat in both new and existing claims. And here's one that's not on most people's radar: office building utilization has moved to new post-pandemic highs, as gradually more and more people come back to more and more frequent in-office work. Remains to be seen what the productivity-maximizing balance is, but more in-office work means a more stable commercial real estate market and more vibrant urban ecosystems.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, January 15, 2026
New claims smash expectations, with the second-smallest number since last September. Meanwhile, DOGE marches slowly and silently along, with cumulative federal and federal-adjacent net jobs losses passing 10,000 for the first time. And in the background, US gasoline consumption is steadily rising, even in the season when people supposedly drive less.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Once again -- new jobless claims low, and below consensus. Our "Truflation" real-time CPI estimator shows December as outright deflationary, and January shaping up to be about flat.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Wednesday, December 31, 2025
New jobless claims fall below 200,000 for a major beat (continuing claims beat, too). Great end to a year of what seems to have been entirely unnecessary worries about the labor market.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Low jobless claims, with both new and continuing beating the consensus. Our "Truflation" real-time CPI estimator continues to show December setting up for a negative print -- outright deflation.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, December 18, 2025
It's a morning of beats -- CPI came in delightfully light, and now unemployment claims (both new and continuing) have fallen back to comfortable levels. S&P 500 forward earnings estimates continue to soar. And Powerball is at $1.5 billion. Make a great day.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, December 11, 2025
Unemployment claims bounce back (to a normal very low level) after last week's weirdly low level (which has not been revised away). Bank lending keeps growing. Bank stress keeps falling. What's not to love in the high-frequency data?
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, December 4, 2025
New jobless claims beat expectations by a mile, and suggest a very strong labor market. Our granular work with the claims data to produce the DOGE tables reveals underlying issues with reliability, so we would put a health-warning on this one. But on the surface, the last jobs data the Fed will get before next week's FOMC does look very robust.