You couldn't ask for a stronger economic base from which to withstand an oil shock. New claims fall to 205,000 -- far below expectations. S&P 500 forward estimates continue to surge at early-cycle growth rates. No one wants an oil shock if we don't have to have one, but if you do, then this is how you want to be positioned for it.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, March 12, 2026
New jobless claims low, and better than expectations. See? This is what we mean when we say to take the reported February payroll contraction with a grain or two of salt. Separately, as earnings season winds down, we now have a 6.4% weighted-average surprise factor for the S&P 500. That's a very strong number, but we do note that it is the fourth quarter of sequential decline. It's still a great number, and the decline is small, but it's worth considering that the consensus is getting better at discounting the earnings generated in this historic productivity supercycle.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, March 5, 2026
Continued tranquility in the high-frequency data, with new claims beating and continuing claims missing, but both at very low numbers. The darker side is the earnings surprise factor for last week, which was a 4.7% miss on average across 30 reporting companies. Sectors with net misses were Energy, Financials, Comm Services, Utilities and Real Estate -- a broad front.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, February 26, 2026
New and continuing claims both low and better than consensus. Forward earnings estimates continue to make new all-time highs. In a week with some worries from the private credit sector, not the slightest evidence of systemic risk to the banking system.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, February 19, 2026
With this week’s report we introduce a new S&P 500 earnings and sales surprise monitor. As forward estimates continue to set records – as to future hopes – surprises continue to come in even stronger – as to proven reality.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Wednesday, February 11, 2026
Claims miss, but continue in their downward trend of the last couple months. The federal government, DC, Maryland and Virginia all show increases in claims.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, February 5, 2026
Bump up in new jobless claims, and a miss versus a more optimistic consensus (which is rare nowadays). Continuing claims rose slightly, beating consensus. Nothing out of pattern with the last several months. We now have all the January data from our "Truflation" real-time CPI model, and it's calling it a month of slight deflation (we'll see soon whether the BLS agrees, at least we will if the government can stay open).
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, January 29, 2026
New jobless claims miss a little, continuing claims beat by more. Air travel sharply reduced, but that's the weather. S&P 500 forward estimates continue to soar amidst what is so far a great earnings season overall.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, January 22, 2026
Another big beat in both new and existing claims. And here's one that's not on most people's radar: office building utilization has moved to new post-pandemic highs, as gradually more and more people come back to more and more frequent in-office work. Remains to be seen what the productivity-maximizing balance is, but more in-office work means a more stable commercial real estate market and more vibrant urban ecosystems.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, January 15, 2026
New claims smash expectations, with the second-smallest number since last September. Meanwhile, DOGE marches slowly and silently along, with cumulative federal and federal-adjacent net jobs losses passing 10,000 for the first time. And in the background, US gasoline consumption is steadily rising, even in the season when people supposedly drive less.