New claims fall (and beat the consensus). But the really terrific news in the high-frequency data is this week's attainment of new all-time highs in 365 days-ahead forward earnings estimates -- a trifecta: the S&P 500 overall, the Magnificent Seven, and the S&P 493. This is the all-clear signal we've been waiting for.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Wednesday, June 18, 2025
Another week of slightly elevated jobless claims. But there's good news in the high-frequency data, too. S&P 500 365 days-ahead forward earnings have recovered from their double dip under the threat of tariffs, and are now making new all-time highs. If you take the Magnificent Seven out, the other 493 stocks still have a couple basis points to go.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, June 12, 2025
New jobless claims are unchanged from last week's slightly elevated level. Continuing claims rise ever so slightly, and both miss expectations. That puts the claims-implied unemployment rate at 1.46%, a level not seen since late 2021. This incipient weakness in the labor market is contradicted by a gratifying rise in S&P 500 forward earnings. They're within a penny or two of all-time highs now -- and Mag 7 forward earnings have been making new highs already for a couple weeks.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, June 5, 2025
New claims miss for the second week in a row, but still no worse than we saw as recently as last October. But last week's were revised lower, and continuing claims beat. This is mixed news on top of this week's poor services PMI and ADP payroll numbers. Other high-frequency data is mixed, too. Forward earnings have been moving higher the last couple weeks and same-store sales growth is fine, but gasoline consumption (even at these lower prices) is gently falling, and rail-freight loadings are contracting.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, May 29, 2025
Misses in both new and continuing claims, taking them both back up to the ever-so-slightly elevated levels where they were a month ago -- but driving no change at all in the claims-implied unemployment rate. As Elon Musk prepares to leave Washington and return the private sector, cumulative DOGE job losses stand at only 1.7 thousand. That doesn't mean he utterly failed to clean house, although our sense is that he did. At the least, it means that fired federal government workers and hangers-on were able to find other employment. Some will be disappointed in him, but remember, the fear at the outset is that he would set off a recessionary wave of unemployment. That didn't happen.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, May 22, 2025
Another great week for high-frequency data. The DOGE effect continues, on net, to be a nothingburger. In fact, this week, the federal-adjacent state of Virginia had the nation's second-best drop in jobless claims.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, May 15, 2025
Claims are low -- new claims slightly miss, but existing claims beat, so the claims-implied unemployment rate falls. The only worrisome high-frequency data is still the stall-out in S&P 500 forward earnings growth. In other news, PPI final demand is in outright deflation for the second month in a row -- and this is just where tariffs were supposed to be showing up first and foremost! We've updated Tuesday's CPI/PPI report to show it.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, May 8, 2025
New and existing jobless claims drop back from last week's little disturbance, and both beat consensus. The only worrisome high-frequency data is the continuing small deterioration in 365 days-ahead S&P 500 forward earnings. It's small -- but forward earnings should go up every day.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, May 1, 2025
Big miss in new claims -- but still a low level, an no different than we had just two months ago. But continuing claims missed too, so the claims-implied unemployment rate rose by 11 bp. You can't blame DOGE -- its net effects on unemployment are minimal. With the gentle rollover in 365 days-ahead S&P 500 forward earnings, we continue to have cause to be on recession alert. But it remains too early to pull any triggers.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, April 24, 2025
If the business cycle is the payroll cycle, and if claims precede payrolls, then we're still in an expansion: new and existing claims remain delightfully low. And all the federal and federal-adjacent DOGE victims seem to be finding new work -- on net, the DOGE effect is near zero, which implies the economy is able to absorb job seekers. In other hi-freq data, the most alarming is the second-this-year dip in 365 days ahead forward earnings. And there's a little uptick in bank stress, although it remains at low levels. Yet bank credit is at all time highs and accelerating. We're more alert to recession risk than we've been in years, but the broad front of high-freq data isn't supporting a recession call at this time.