Misses in both new and continuing claims, taking them both back up to the ever-so-slightly elevated levels where they were a month ago -- but driving no change at all in the claims-implied unemployment rate. As Elon Musk prepares to leave Washington and return the private sector, cumulative DOGE job losses stand at only 1.7 thousand. That doesn't mean he utterly failed to clean house, although our sense is that he did. At the least, it means that fired federal government workers and hangers-on were able to find other employment. Some will be disappointed in him, but remember, the fear at the outset is that he would set off a recessionary wave of unemployment. That didn't happen.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, May 22, 2025
Another great week for high-frequency data. The DOGE effect continues, on net, to be a nothingburger. In fact, this week, the federal-adjacent state of Virginia had the nation's second-best drop in jobless claims.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, May 15, 2025
Claims are low -- new claims slightly miss, but existing claims beat, so the claims-implied unemployment rate falls. The only worrisome high-frequency data is still the stall-out in S&P 500 forward earnings growth. In other news, PPI final demand is in outright deflation for the second month in a row -- and this is just where tariffs were supposed to be showing up first and foremost! We've updated Tuesday's CPI/PPI report to show it.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, May 8, 2025
New and existing jobless claims drop back from last week's little disturbance, and both beat consensus. The only worrisome high-frequency data is the continuing small deterioration in 365 days-ahead S&P 500 forward earnings. It's small -- but forward earnings should go up every day.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, May 1, 2025
Big miss in new claims -- but still a low level, an no different than we had just two months ago. But continuing claims missed too, so the claims-implied unemployment rate rose by 11 bp. You can't blame DOGE -- its net effects on unemployment are minimal. With the gentle rollover in 365 days-ahead S&P 500 forward earnings, we continue to have cause to be on recession alert. But it remains too early to pull any triggers.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, April 24, 2025
If the business cycle is the payroll cycle, and if claims precede payrolls, then we're still in an expansion: new and existing claims remain delightfully low. And all the federal and federal-adjacent DOGE victims seem to be finding new work -- on net, the DOGE effect is near zero, which implies the economy is able to absorb job seekers. In other hi-freq data, the most alarming is the second-this-year dip in 365 days ahead forward earnings. And there's a little uptick in bank stress, although it remains at low levels. Yet bank credit is at all time highs and accelerating. We're more alert to recession risk than we've been in years, but the broad front of high-freq data isn't supporting a recession call at this time.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, April 17, 2025
Big beats in new and continuing claims. For those, like Elvis Costello, waiting for the end of the world, you'll have to wait another week. DOGE firings -- to the extent they even exist -- are being absorbed. On the week, federal and federal-adjacent jobs grew by 1.6 thousand. Cumulatively, net job losses are a mere 2.0 thousand.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, April 10, 2025
Once again, the high-frequency data shows no sign of tremors ahead of a tariff-earthquake. And there's still substantially no DOGE effect on employment in the federal government or federal-adjacent states.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, April 3, 2025
The DOGE effect ran in reverse last week, with federal and federal-adjacent joblessness falling by 2.18 thousand. Maybe those who lost their jobs are simply finding new ones -- that would be the very best outcome. In other high-frequency data, there's not the slightest disturbance in everything (but then again, the tariffs were only announced yesterday afternoon). Stay tuned.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, March 27, 2025
This week we enhance our DOGE Tracker with week-on-week data, in addition to our usual since-inauguration data. On the week, the DOGE effect ran in reverse. Unemployment claims by federal government workers rose by a piddling 161! But in the whole federal and federal-adjacent ecosystem that includes non-governmental workers in DC, Virginia and Maryland, claims actually fell by 1,067. If you want the federal government to shrink, sorry about that. If you are worried about the labor market, now you can worry less. And yes, there is a world of high-frequency data outside of DOGE. And it looks great.