New claims miss, continuing claims beat -- both low. We're expecting a tepid jobs report tomorrow as the economy adjusts to vast self-deportation of recent immigrants.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, August 28, 2025
Another brilliant week of high-frequency data, with new and continuing claims at low levels and beating the consensus, and with S&P 500 forward earnings and bank lending making new all-time highs.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, August 21, 2025
A little bump up in new jobless claims, but nothing to make Powell say anything at Jackson Hole tomorrow that he wouldn't have said anyway. Our "Truflation" measure of CPI is running negative -- that is, deflation -- month-to-date for August. Sadly, that won't make any difference to Powell either. Remember when there was so much inflation just a few short years ago and he couldn't see it? Now there is none, and it's all he can see. Yes, we want an independent Fed. But not one that is independent from reality.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Wednesday, August 13, 2025
CPI was tame, PPI wasn't. But jobless claims remain low, and both new and continuing beat the consensus. The high-frequency data is all very stable.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, August 7, 2025
Another low new claims number, another new high for S&P 500 forward earnings. DOGE continues to clank along at a slow pace in driving job losses in the Federal government and federal-adjacent locales -- but the scale is small in the grand scheme of things.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, July 31, 2025
Beats in both new and continuing claims, both at very low levels. S&P 500 365 days-forward earnings aggressively moving to new highs now -- and yesterday's big beats by MSFT and META aren't even in the data yet. For all our criticisms of Powell's faulty vision on inflation, we agree with him -- and this data confirms -- that there's no urgent need for a rate cut. On that point, if we were to still fault him, we'd ask why he keeps insisting that policy is restrictive? He can't have it both ways...
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, July 24, 2025
Lowest jobless claims since March. And S&P 500 356 days-ahead earnings are punching out significant new highs every day now.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, July 17, 2025
New and existing claims beat. Forward earnings at new all-time highs. It doesn't quite feel like it, but by the numbers, it's a wonderful life.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Wednesday, July 9, 2025
The June bump in jobless claims is over. New and continuing claims beat the consensus, and fall back to the low levels we've gotten used to over the last couple years.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, July 3, 2025
New jobless claims beat. Our real-time "Truflation" CPI estimator puts June at 44 bp of outright deflation (annual rate). That should take the edge off Fed fears generated this morning by a deceptively strong payrolls report.