Looks like Powell was right (as were we). Nice beats in new and existing claims show the labor market is not in any sort of alarming stress. On the other hand... our "Truflation" real-time inflation gauge is creeping up, looking like September CPI will be a little above the Fed's 2.5% target, at 3.1% (but there's still a third of the month to go).
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, September 12, 2024
As the 2s-10s yield curve flirts with disinversion (historically, a way better recession indicator than inversion), the high-frequency data remains universally strong. New claims missed ever-so-slightly (at a low level). Continuing claims exactly at expectations (at a low level). And as we start looking ahead to September CPI, our "Truflation" real-time indicator has settled into a nice gentle deflation month-to-date.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, September 5, 2024
So much scary labor market news this week -- but claims beat again, fall from last week, and remain incredibly low. How bad can it really be?
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, August 29, 2024
The high-frequency data is a world of -- ahem -- joy. Claims beat (and fall). Bank lending expands. August "Truflation" is wrapping up the month well below the Fed's CPI target. All good.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, August 22, 2024
New claims low and at-consensus. Existing low and beats. Despite payroll data getting downgraded based on the same state-level data from which claims are derived, claims continue to look fabulous and consistent with an ongoing expansion. Best news for the Fed: our "Truflation" real-time CPI-tracker has come down from high levels at the beginning of August to now a mere 0.70% at an annual rate, month to date.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, August 15, 2024
New and continuing claims fall, and beat the consensus (again). Do you remember just two weeks ago one slightly elevated data point was evidence of recession right here and right now?
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Wednesday, August 7, 2024
The great news is that the consensus for new jobless claims was calling for a drop from last week's big number -- and then we beat it! Our "still no recession" call is looking good. The not so great news that that "Truflation" is now showing August month-to-date CPI The not so great news that that "Truflation" is now showing August month-to-date CPI growing at a 10% annual rate, reversing two months of deflation (including July, to be officially reported next week -- look for a nice beat). But the relieving news for August is it's all one category -- housing -- and we still have the better part of a month to see if that calms down.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, August 1, 2024
A miss in claims to the worst level in a year (but remember, a year ago the economy was in a red-hot growth boom). Most important, "Truflation" finished out July with outright deflation of 2.29% at an annual rate. The Fed's going to love all this.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, July 25, 2024
After a blockbuster GDP print, the hits just keep on coming. Jobless claims fall after last week's false alarm, beating the consensus. Our "Truflation" real-time inflation indicator is showing July CPI shaping up for only 0.39% at an annual rate, setting up for another big Fed-pleasing beat.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, July 18, 2024
Claims miss, moving back to the top of the recent range. The "Truflation" real-time inflation gauge shows July CPI at-target, midway through the month.