Is one week too long ago for everyone to remember how misses in claims got everyone all spun about recession again? Well, this week the beats were bigger than last week's misses. The high-frequency data gives us no reason to worry about imminent recession.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, December 28, 2023
We end a year of recession-proof high-frequency data with bank credit in loans and leases $178 billion higher than the week Silicon Valley Bank failed.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Friday, December 22, 2023
Claims beat again. It's a boom we're in, I tell you. It's a boom. And to all a good night.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, December 14, 2023
Strong beat in initial claims, small one in continuing. Even gasoline consumption is perking up. The high-frequency data looks fantastic.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, December 7, 2023
Continuing claims beat significantly, and the claims-employed unemployment rate falls sharply. The only one of our high-frequency data sets that isn't showing a continuing boom is gasoline consumption, off almost 7% from pre-pandemic levels. But maybe this tells its own boom story -- the productivity growth powering the boom is itself powered by a post-pandemic mobility re-think in which we just don't need to move around as much to produce the same output (and more). And that, in turn, speaks volumes about sticky low oil prices in the face of record-low inventories.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, November 30, 2023
Discount stores report the best year-over-year sales growth in over a year. But a miss by continuing claims drives the implied unemployment rate slightly higher (from an insanely low base).
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Wednesday, November 22, 2023
Big beats in new and continuing claims -- the leading edge of the labor market looks incredibly strong heading into the holidays. But here's more of a surprise: a big improvement in our bank stress indicator!
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, November 16, 2023
Quick! Call the recession cops! Misses in both new and continuing claims (enough to cause the claims-implied unemployment rate to soar by an astonishing 1 basis point).
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, November 9, 2023
All is well in the high-frequency data. New claims beat a bit. Continuing claims missed a bit. On net, the claims-implied unemployment rate went down.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, November 2, 2023
Misses in new and existing claims, but at ridiculously low numbers that don't change the ultra-low claims-implied unemployment rate one bit. All the data isn't in, but based on this and other labor market statistics for October, tomorrow's payroll report should slightly miss expectations for 180,000. But don't be too disappointed. That's still twice the number of Americans who organically enter work eligibility each month.