No matter how low the consensus goes, new claims keeps beating. Amazing, considering that we've been in a recession for two years according to the conventional wisdom. But the best news is S&P 500 forward earnings estimates. It's touching the old all-time highs from June 2022 when the Fed first lost its mind, recovering from a more than 6% dip. That's the true recession indicator. You can argue there was one (though you didn't see it in payrolls). But you can't argue one is imminent.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, October 5, 2023
With higher interest rates, the recession drumbeat is loud and clear again. But the real beat is in new and continuing claims today. The labor market simply refuses to roll over.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, September 28, 2023
Yet another amazing beat in unemployment claims, and the claims-employed unemployment rate falls again. Are today's high interest rates hurting the economy? Or is an economy this strong driving those rates to begin with?
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, September 21, 2023
Brilliant beats in new and continuing claims move the implied unemployment rate lower, and confirm our ongoing call for no recession. The only problem is that, after yesterday, it's obvious that Jerome Powell insists on one.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, September 14, 2023
Bank credit starts to grow again, and is now at all-time highs. And nice beats in new and continuing claims drive a nice downtick in the implied unemployment rate.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, September 7, 2023
New jobless claims at the lowest in 62 weeks. Bank credit growing again. We've beaten inflation without even a soft landing. But... but... now comes the deflation.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, August 31, 2023
High-frequency banking data continues to improve, with new loans and leases since Silicon Valley Bank failed now at just under $50 billion. The problem is that over a typical six-month period it's three or four times that...
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, August 24, 2023
The high-frequency data is improving across the board, giving some credence to that crazy-seeming Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate. And according to Truflation, August CPI is coming in about flat!
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, August 17, 2023
A new feature on the last page: a running estimate from Truflation of this month's CPI, at an annual rate. Spoiler alert: it's 2.73%, just 23 bp above the Fed's CPI target.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, August 10, 2023
The most troubling thing in the high-frequency data remains the fact that there has been pretty much no growth in bank loans and leases since Silicon Valley Bank failed.