Sorry, Jay. The economy just continues to "complicate the FOMC's effort" to cause a recession. Restaurants booming. Huge beat in claims. Where's the soft landing? Where's the landing at all?
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, December 29, 2022
A nice end to a nice year in high-frequency data. Other than a seasonal and weather-driven drop in rail-freight traffic, there continues to be no warning of recession.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, December 22, 2022
Claims rise slightly, but beat expectations. So the implied unemployment rate rises by 1 bp. The Fed's tightening regime is "working"! In other news, Q3 real GDP was revised upward again t0 3.2% at an annual rate (the more the Fed tightens, the faster the economy grows). That puts us 4.4% above pre-pandemic output, with no more people working to produce it. Inflationary recession? No. It's our productivity-led boom.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, December 15, 2022
Nice beats on already-low estimates for new and continuing claims move the implied-unemployment rate down slightly. Happy landings, Jay.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, December 8, 2022
New claims exactly at expectation, leaving the implied unemployment rate unchanged. No hard landing. No soft landing. No landing at all.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, December 1, 2022
Some Thanksgiving-week noise in the data, but the overarching good news is that the claims-implied unemployment rate ticked down after last week's little pop. The labor market in real-time is looking Fed-proof.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Wednesday, November 23, 2022
A miss in claims, and a sharp uptick in implied unemployment to the highest level since March. Noise? Holiday-week distortion? Or first step to recession? Only her central banker knows for sure.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, November 17, 2022
This morning James Bullard called for a 7% policy rate -- because he doesn't like the fact that the data, including today's beats in new jobless claims, isn't showing signs of recession. He might want to note, instead, that year-on-year inflation has been falling steadily since June.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, November 10, 2022
The only soft spot in the high-frequency data is year-ahead S&P 500 forward earnings. It's not trivial to see it sagging a bit -- but nothing else we track is sagging at all.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, November 3, 2022
Powell to high-frequency data: "I'll huff and I'll puff and I'll push on a string." After 4-1/2 months of extreme rate hikes, no sign of weakness.