After a full month of energy mayhem from the Iran conflict, there is little or no evidence of it in the purchasing managers indices. In the US, of course the prices-paid index jumped notably because of energy. But nowhere in the world is anyone expecting a big fall-off in either manufacturing or services activity.
Global PMI
Global PMI
Wednesday, March 4, 2026
A blowout US non-manufacturing PMI reading, the highest since 2022 -- with the prices paid index the lowest in almost a year. The productivity supercycle is alive and well. Unfortunately data for Iran is not available.
Global PMI
Wednesday, February 4, 2026
US manufacturing PMI is nothing short of a blowout upside shocker. Services PMI is a nice beat. It's not unanimous worldwide, but the strongly weighted balance is toward the productivity supercycle we've been talking about.
Global PMI
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
US manufacturing PMI is very weak, US services PMI is very strong. Fortunately services are the vast majority of the economy. And still waiting for tariffs to somehow miraculously re-shore manufacturing here. Still waiting... Still waiting... ZZZZZZ.
Global PMI
Wednesday, December 3, 2025
Shocker. US ISM services ticks up -- while the prices paid component falls. Manufacturing continues to hug the bottom of the range. Its prices paid component ticks up slightly, but is sharply lower than it was six months ago when tariffs first started to bite.
Global PMI
Friday, October 3, 2025
US non-manufacturing PMI slips to slightly below 50. Oddly, its employment component ticked up on the month as did that of the manufacturing index. Putting that in our model to try to guess at the little jobs report that couldn't, we're upgrading to an expectation for 48,000 net payrolls.
Global PMI
Thursday, September 4, 2025
US services PMI at a six-month high, and the prices component falls from last month's alarming blip. New orders soars. The only problem is the employment component -- another month below 50. We just might survive.
Global PMI
Tuesday, August 5, 2025
The US services PMI falls to 50.1, just above the level implying contraction. The prices-paid component rises yet again, and you can be sure tariffs will be blamed. But the prices-paid component for manufacturing fell to the lowest level since March, when tariffmania began.
Global PMI
Thursday, July 3, 2025
Further evidence that the US business cycle is withstanding the much-ballyhooed uncertainty of this year -- non-manufacturing PMI rises back above 50.
Global PMI
Wednesday, June 4, 2025
Bad day for data – US services PMI dips ever-so-slightly below 50, with weakness in all subcategories (except prices!). And the ADP Payroll survey shows only 37,000 new jobs. Tomorrow’s unemployment claims data could be critical, but the elephant in this week’s room is Friday’s non-farm payroll report. Our payrolls model based on contemporaneous labor market data is now estimating 110,000 net payrolls (the estimate will change tomorrow when we see claims). As it stands, that would be a miss versus the consensus of 130,000. Trump is “truthing” that the Fed is “too late.” Maybe, but the futures curve is pointing to more than two cuts by year-end.