Both US manufacturing and services PMIs fall, with especially bad readings in the employment sub-indices. And... uh... inconvenient truth... it's not happening in other countries. Wait! We have a great idea! Let's impose massive tariffs! We can be more like them!
Global PMI
Global PMI
Wednesday, March 5, 2025
We needed a little good macro news today after a sluggish ADP payrolls report, and we just got it. US services PMS rises, with the employment sub-index rising to the highest level since 2021.
Global PMI
Wednesday, February 5, 2025
US manufacturing PMI rises above 50 for the first time since October 2022 -- and there was no recession. Non-manufacturing PMI falls, but stays well above 50. Both sides of the economy are finally in synch.
Global PMI
Tuesday, January 7, 2025
US services PMI blows by expectations at 54.1, and at the aggregate level growth like that is happening on a global basis. Meanwhile, in the JOLTS report, job openings (also known as personal growth opportunities) rise 259,000 to 8.1 million, on top of a 95,000 upward revision for October. Sadly, the surgeon generals at the Fed think growth and opportunity cause cancer, so...
Global PMI
Thursday, December 5, 2024
Manufacturing PMIs have rebounded to the neutral 50 level worldwide. Services PMIs are hanging in there comfortably above 50.
Global PMI
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
The divergence between US manufacturing and services just gets more stark. Manufacturing drifts lower, services accelerated what is already a boom.
Global PMI
Thursday, October 3, 2024
US services PMI blows the doors off with the highest reading in almost two years. One more time. No recession.
Global PMI
Thursday, September 5, 2024
PMI services rises, stays comfortably above 50, and beats estimates. PMI manufacturing earlier this week rose, too. Gee, if you didn't know there was a recession (because everyone keeps telling you there is) you wouldn't think we're in a recession (because we're not).
Global PMI
Monday, August 5, 2024
Sorry recession fans. You've got some ammo now, but the non-manufacturing ISM PMI at 51.4 doesn't help your case. And the S&P Global version at 55 is even more evidence that the vast services sector, explaining 85% of jobs, is doing just fine. In fact, services almost everywhere in the world look fine. It's good to be fine.
Global PMI
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Shocker! The ISM services PMI drops to 48.8, a low almost as bad as the worst of the pandemic depression. But it's also a shocker that S&P Global's equivalent index was 55.3, the highest in more than two years. We're beginning to think some of this data isn't reliable.