Shocker! The ISM services PMI drops to 48.8, a low almost as bad as the worst of the pandemic depression. But it's also a shocker that S&P Global's equivalent index was 55.3, the highest in more than two years. We're beginning to think some of this data isn't reliable.
Global PMI
Global PMI
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Ha! We told you last month's sub-50 ISM services number would prove to be a fluke. Now, smashing the consensus by rising to 53.8, we're instantly back at 8-month highs.
Global PMI
Friday, May 3, 2024
A US non-manufacturing PMI print below 50, for the first time since December 2022. You remember December 2022. That was just before the economy resumed its post-pandemic boom despite unanimous recession fears. It's hard to square this number with the 8.8% upside surprise factor this earnings season -- the biggest since Q3-21. We're not dismissing data that counters our narrative -- the data is what it is, and we respect it. But we're going to look at the totality, including this morning's perfectly good jobs report.
Global PMI
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
It's all good. It's all very good. US manufacturing PMI the highest in 16 months, and US services PMI prices-paid is the lowest in four years.
Global PMI
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
The disconnect continues. Weak US manufacturing, strong US services.
Global PMI
Monday, February 5, 2024
Big moves higher in US PMIs, both manufacturing and services. Uhhh... still waiting for all those lag effects to cause a recession (hint: maybe they're not going to).
Global PMI
Friday, January 5, 2024
Don't read too much into the big miss in US services PMI just now, at 50.6 (consensus was 52.5). It was at 49.2 a year ago, and we had a boom year in 2023. It was lower than now, at 50.3 in May, and then the following quarter was about 5% real GDP growth.
Global PMI
Tuesday, December 5, 2023
Global manufacturing PMIs are recovering. Nice uptick in US services. The recession everyone's been expecting remains on hold.
Global PMI
Friday, November 3, 2023
US manufacturing PMI misses, as it falls to 51.8. That's not much less than average for the last 12 months (and no one should expect Q3's torrid growth to be duplicated anyway).
Global PMI
Wednesday, October 4, 2023
Europe surprises on the upside a little bit this month. US surprises on the downside a little bit this month.