US Jobs

US Jobs
Friday, September 3, 2021
A big payroll miss. To help you understand it, we have new features this month on page 2! We reveal the role of seasonal adjustments and the birth-death model; we show employment by race, gender and education; and we show the components of the TrendMacro Payroll Model based on contemporaneous labor market statistics (our model nailed it this month, by the way).
US Jobs
Friday, August 6, 2021
It's a beat, all the more so on top of big revisions to prior months. The boom lives!
US Jobs
Friday, July 2, 2021
At last, a beat in payrolls. But the "Household Survey" doesn't agree, with a dove-friendly uptick in the unemployment rate. 
US Jobs
Friday, June 4, 2021
The labor force shrinks as the economy re-opens. We all know what's going on here. All together: we're paying people more not to work than to work.
US Jobs
Friday, May 7, 2021
A huge miss versus the million payrolls expected. 
US Jobs
Friday, April 2, 2021
Words of One Syllable Department: "BOOM"
US Jobs
Friday, March 5, 2021
A big beat, led by the reopening-sensitive leisure sector even in a frigid winter.
US Jobs
Friday, February 5, 2021
A miss, but the real story is that labor market is basically unchanged -- frozen in the "dark winter" of Covid before the coming boom.
US Jobs
Friday, January 8, 2021
A catastrophe in the lockdown-sensitive leisure sector. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln...
US Jobs
Friday, December 4, 2020
A miss versus consensus, with the recovery-critical retail sector shedding jobs.

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