Big downward revisions to the prior two months of payrolls, but a beat for June. The immigrant population and employment levels appear to have shrunk, and the native born appear to have expanded -- but these are not seasonally adjusted, so we really can't tell from month the month. It seems unlikely that Biden's tepid border-control policy changes could have made any difference so soon (and no matter how successful they are, they wouldn't have caused the native-born population to expand).
US Jobs
US Jobs
Friday, June 7, 2024
So much for "labor market weakness" -- yet another stunning beat for payrolls. But employment in the household survey fell overall, with large growth in foreign-born employment more than offset by shrinkage in native-born employment. Our model agrees with payrolls, so we're going to say this is another month of good news for the post-pandemic productivity-led boom. But hard to say how this mixed bag will affect the Fed next week. Happily, that doesn't matter much anymore.
US Jobs
Thursday, May 2, 2024
A headline miss, but objectively a perfectly fine number and completely in-line with our model's expectations. The deceleration in average hourly earnings growth is very Fed-friendly.
US Jobs
Friday, April 5, 2024
No ambiguity this month! Boom! Payrolls beat. Confirmed by Household Survey. Wage growth tame. Boom!
US Jobs
Friday, March 8, 2024
A headline beat, but January's blockbuster was revised lower. Tiny average hourly earnings growth. This is a very Fed-friendly report.
US Jobs
Friday, February 2, 2024
Crazy! A blockbuster payroll number is even bigger than it looks, given annual benchmark revisions. And employment in the household survey is reported as contracting, but it's actually expanding when you account for annual population control adjustments. But then again, without seasonal adjustments, America lost 2.6 million jobs in January. Fun with statistics! More later...
US Jobs
Friday, January 5, 2024
Solid payroll number, but on the back of downward revisions (and seemingly echoing the Fed's cognitive dissonance, a terrible month for the "household survey" right after last month's blockbuster). If you want to be hawkish, look no further than the large jump in average hourly earnings (fortunately, it's becoming increasingly obvious to sentient beings that this has no relation to inflation).
US Jobs
Friday, December 8, 2023
We're really trying to find something not to love in this November jobs report. Face it -- we're in a boom.
US Jobs
Friday, November 3, 2023
The perfect jobs report for the Fed. Unemployment rate up. Average hourly earnings way down. Downward revisions to the too-hot prior months. (And for the rest of us, it's not as recessionary as you're going to be hearing all day.)
US Jobs
Friday, October 6, 2023
A gigantic payroll beat that is just too good to be true. It's not confirmed by any other contemporaneous labor market indicator.