428,000 net payroll gains doesn't exactly point to an imminent recession.
US Jobs
US Jobs
Friday, April 1, 2022
The unemployment rate now just 15 bp from the died-and-gone-to-heaven pre-pandemic benchmark -- and it's that good for every ethnic, gender and education-attainment group.
US Jobs
Friday, March 4, 2022
A good payroll number. But an unbelievably good payroll number on top of January's unbelievably good payroll number, which was slightly revised higher. Huh?
US Jobs
Friday, January 7, 2022
A big miss for payrolls, but again the "household survey" tells a more optimistic story.
US Jobs
Friday, December 3, 2021
A miss according to the payroll survey. But a booming beat according to the household survey.
US Jobs
Friday, November 5, 2021
The best part is the big upward revisions to August and September, making them not quite the train-wrecks they first seemed to be.
US Jobs
Friday, October 8, 2021
Nice upward revisions to last month's big miss -- but this one is still another miss.
US Jobs
Friday, September 3, 2021
A big payroll miss. To help you understand it, we have new features this month on page 2! We reveal the role of seasonal adjustments and the birth-death model; we show employment by race, gender and education; and we show the components of the TrendMacro Payroll Model based on contemporaneous labor market statistics (our model nailed it this month, by the way).
US Jobs
Friday, August 6, 2021
It's a beat, all the more so on top of big revisions to prior months. The boom lives!