Supply chains are wide open worldwide. And US retail sales, with and without autos, moved up to new all-times highs (and inventories are still very disciplined). Our fearless prediction: the chatter with blame this good news on tariffs (people stocking up ahead of higher prices). If this had been bad news, the chatter would have blamed tariffs for that, too (people holding off on consumption decisions due to uncertainty). We call this confirmation bias.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Monday, March 17, 2025
A tepid retail sales report. Growth in February, but an already bad January was revised lower. And still below the December peak. Inventory-to-sales ratios remain beautifully contained, so any consumption soft-spot here is unlikely to curdle into a liquidation that could trigger a recession.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Friday, February 14, 2025
Big miss in retail sales, with or without autos. On the heels of a big CPI miss, January is shaping up to have been a pretty bad month. On the print, market expectations for the next Fed cut moved to September, from October.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Thursday, January 16, 2025
Good month in retail sales, but not up to consensus. Supply-chain pressure and shipping costs all at about historically normal levels, but inventories still low (not much recession risk there).
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Tuesday, December 17, 2024
Nice beat in retail sales. But the Fed thinks prosperity causes inflation. So if they are looking for an excuse to signal a pause in January, they could always cite this.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Thursday, November 14, 2024
Another beat in retail sales. The hidden undercurrent is that inventories-to-sales ratios still remain low, well below the norms before the pandemic. Even if sales were to slacken, the risk from inventory overhang is minimal.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Thursday, October 17, 2024
Retail sales is another beat, pummeling what's left of the recession consensus.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Retail sales up, the consensus expected down. The recession just keeps refusing to materialize. In fact, retail sales ex-auto continue to climb away from sagging inventories, setting the stage for a replenishment cycle.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Best retail sales number in a year-and-a-half. Recessions should be made of sterner stuff.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Tuesday, July 16, 2024
Retail sales unchanged, but that's a beat versus the perpetually too-pessimistic consensus. Ex-auto up a robust 0.4%, and ex-auto/gas up 0.8% -- both substantial beats. Can't wait to hear how this gets twisted into the seemingly immortal recession narrative.