It's a month of blockbusters with this morning's retail sales pushing out to new highs. Like we've been saying -- the more the Fed tightens, the faster the economy grows. Who woulda thunk it?
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Wednesday, January 18, 2023
Bad month for headline retail sales (but ex-auto and gas they were unchanged, and inventories have been falling in proper anticipation for several months). The more exciting new is the surprising drop in the Producer Price Index. We've updated last week's Data Insights: CPI/PPI to reflect that (click here for the update).
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Thursday, December 15, 2022
Retail sales decline. But of more interest than a mere month's data, one of our global supply chain stress indices has now entirely completed it's pandemic-era journey -- suggesting that, to the extent that supply-stresses contributed to our outbreak of inflation, they are no longer do so. At all.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Wednesday, November 16, 2022
Wow. One of our two supply-chain stress indices has gone negative, implying that there is now less stress than the historical average! The other is still positive, but just one standard deviation above the mean.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Friday, October 14, 2022
Supply chains stress indices are almost back to pre-pandemic norms. We're going to have to find something else to blame for inflation.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Thursday, September 15, 2022
The two published supply-chain stress indices we track on Page 1 have made tremendous progress. Citi's version is almost back to the long-term mean!
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Wednesday, August 17, 2022
Oh no Mr. Bill! Retail sales ex-auto and ex-gasoline surprised to the upside, and inventories are as tight as ever. Makes us think Target has lost its touch -- and makes us worry that the Fed will think there is entirely too much prosperity going on around here.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Friday, July 15, 2022
What kind of recession are we supposed to have when retail inventories still haven't gotten back to the pre-pandemic trend, and barely represent a month's worth of sales?
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Wednesday, June 15, 2022
Headline retail sales missed, and shrank. Ex-auto missed, but grew. Headline, inventories are slightly above monthly sales, for one of the lowest ratios in history. Ex-autos they're below sales, and the ratio is negative. So what exactly is Target's problem?
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Tuesday, May 17, 2022
Nice beats in retail sales -- except for autos and gas. If high fuel prices are eroding demand, that demand seems to be shifting elsewhere.