Retail sales decline. But of more interest than a mere month's data, one of our global supply chain stress indices has now entirely completed it's pandemic-era journey -- suggesting that, to the extent that supply-stresses contributed to our outbreak of inflation, they are no longer do so. At all.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Wednesday, November 16, 2022
Wow. One of our two supply-chain stress indices has gone negative, implying that there is now less stress than the historical average! The other is still positive, but just one standard deviation above the mean.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Friday, October 14, 2022
Supply chains stress indices are almost back to pre-pandemic norms. We're going to have to find something else to blame for inflation.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Thursday, September 15, 2022
The two published supply-chain stress indices we track on Page 1 have made tremendous progress. Citi's version is almost back to the long-term mean!
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Wednesday, August 17, 2022
Oh no Mr. Bill! Retail sales ex-auto and ex-gasoline surprised to the upside, and inventories are as tight as ever. Makes us think Target has lost its touch -- and makes us worry that the Fed will think there is entirely too much prosperity going on around here.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Friday, July 15, 2022
What kind of recession are we supposed to have when retail inventories still haven't gotten back to the pre-pandemic trend, and barely represent a month's worth of sales?
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Wednesday, June 15, 2022
Headline retail sales missed, and shrank. Ex-auto missed, but grew. Headline, inventories are slightly above monthly sales, for one of the lowest ratios in history. Ex-autos they're below sales, and the ratio is negative. So what exactly is Target's problem?
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Tuesday, May 17, 2022
Nice beats in retail sales -- except for autos and gas. If high fuel prices are eroding demand, that demand seems to be shifting elsewhere.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Thursday, April 14, 2022
Some evidence of global supply-chain easing: the speed of container ships at sea is increasing, indicating they expect faster through-put when they arrive at port.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Wednesday, March 16, 2022
Business inventories are now finally well above trend after two years of lagging. The problem is that sales are even further above, with no fiscal drag showing at all. So the inventory/sales ratio is still scraping the bottom.