Good month in retail sales, but not up to consensus. Supply-chain pressure and shipping costs all at about historically normal levels, but inventories still low (not much recession risk there).
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Tuesday, December 17, 2024
Nice beat in retail sales. But the Fed thinks prosperity causes inflation. So if they are looking for an excuse to signal a pause in January, they could always cite this.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Thursday, November 14, 2024
Another beat in retail sales. The hidden undercurrent is that inventories-to-sales ratios still remain low, well below the norms before the pandemic. Even if sales were to slacken, the risk from inventory overhang is minimal.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Thursday, October 17, 2024
Retail sales is another beat, pummeling what's left of the recession consensus.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Retail sales up, the consensus expected down. The recession just keeps refusing to materialize. In fact, retail sales ex-auto continue to climb away from sagging inventories, setting the stage for a replenishment cycle.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Best retail sales number in a year-and-a-half. Recessions should be made of sterner stuff.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Tuesday, July 16, 2024
Retail sales unchanged, but that's a beat versus the perpetually too-pessimistic consensus. Ex-auto up a robust 0.4%, and ex-auto/gas up 0.8% -- both substantial beats. Can't wait to hear how this gets twisted into the seemingly immortal recession narrative.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Tuesday, June 18, 2024
Sluggish retail sales growth, a little better without autos. Inventory-to-sales ratios still more than orderly (even with a retail reversal, which we're not seeing, nobody is overstocked).
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Headline retail sales were flat, but ex-auto rose (and both are at all-time highs). Meanwhile, ex-auto inventory-to-sales ratios are near the lowest in history -- a bulwark against any recession threat, and indeed a spur to growth.
Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Monday, April 15, 2024
When this morning's blockbuster retail sales beat hit the tape, stocks pulled back for fear it would keep the Fed higher for longer. It took three minutes for markets to realize that the Fed doesn't matter anymore: we're in a boom.