The Fed's preferred measure of consumer inflation confirms the measure the rest of us use -- disinflation continues, reversing the false-alarm of the first quarter. Powell's pet "supercore" falls to a 5-month low, challenging the year-end low. Goods inflation prints even lower than its CPI counterpart, in outright deflation.
US PCE Inflation
US PCE Inflation
Friday, May 31, 2024
Every measure of PCE inflation improves on a year-on-year basis, including Powell's beloved "super-core". And that's on top of downward revisions to January, February and March.
US PCE Inflation
Friday, April 26, 2024
Core PCE inflation makes a new cycle low at 2.8% year-on-year. Literally every key metric decelerated -- that is, March's month-change at an annual rate was below that of the trailing three months.
US PCE Inflation
Friday, March 29, 2024
A beat in headline PCE inflation, and Powell's preferred "super-core" falls back to the December lows.
US PCE Inflation
Thursday, February 29, 2024
PCE inflation in-line with expectations for January -- but December's readings were revised sharply lower.
US PCE Inflation
Friday, January 26, 2024
Nice! PCE and Core PCE inflation right at expectations -- but November and October were revised lower! And Powell's preferred (and very secret) inflation measure drops to a mere 3.3% year-on-year.
US PCE Inflation
Friday, December 22, 2023
Powell's secret personal inflation index, core services ex-shelter, grew at a below-target annual rate of 1.48% last month. Year-on-year it's down to a mere 3.48%. Headline PCE deflated sharply on the month at a -0.86% annual rate, and is now at only 2.64% year-on-year. No wonder Powell was so optimistic last week -- presumably he saw this data in advance (or maybe he's started following our monetarist model that predicted all this).
US PCE Inflation
Thursday, November 30, 2023
Nice beats, nice numbers. Headline at 0.6% at an annual rate, core at 1.98%. Powell's super-secret "supercore" at -- wait for it -- 1.73%.
US PCE Inflation
Friday, October 27, 2023
Core PCE inflation is at just 2.54% for the quarter, tantalizingly close to the Fed's 2% target. Amazing for a quarter with 4.9% real GDP growth led by personal consumption expenditures.
US PCE Inflation
Friday, September 29, 2023
Powell's preferred inflation metric ("supercore") below target for the month, and on a year-on-year basis at its lowest level in 23 months. Core below target for the month, too, and only 16 bp above target for the quarter. Can't we please declare victory?