Powell's preferred inflation metric ("supercore") below target for the month, and on a year-on-year basis at its lowest level in 23 months. Core below target for the month, too, and only 16 bp above target for the quarter. Can't we please declare victory?
US PCE Inflation
US PCE Inflation
Thursday, August 31, 2023
PCE inflation at expectations. The bad news is that Powell's super-secret personal index of "sticky" inflation (which he doesn't understand is actually lagging inflation) ticked up sharply.
US PCE Inflation
Friday, July 28, 2023
June PCE inflation comes in at 2.97% year-on-year, exactly matching June CPI. Funny, for pretty much the first time in history, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation isn't registering lower than CPI. That said, PCE goods prices are now in outright deflation. And Powell's super-secret "super core" is at its lowest reading in 11 months.
US PCE Inflation
Friday, June 30, 2023
Welcome to the newest Data Insights series, covering the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. PCE inflation is based on the same underlying price data as CPI, but it is weighted differently and the weights change every month. PCE data is released about two weeks after CPI. For May, headline PCE came in at expectations, a drop from 4.4% YOY to 3.8%. Core beat expectations, falling from 4.7% to 4.6%, when steady at 4.7% was expected. The goods sector, which makes up almost half the consumption basked, has now fallen from a panic-inducing 10.6% just 11 months ago to now just 1.05%, which should start to induce a deflation panic. This month also marks the first in which shelter inflation has fallen on a YOY basis.