Media Appearances

Donald Luskin argues that tariffs are “inherently small tax hikes because tariffs only apply to, at most, a base of $3.257 trillion—the total value of goods and services the U.S. imports annually” (“How Much Do Tariffs Matter?,” op-ed, Jan. 29).

Yet they apply more widely than that. Tariffs make cars and housing more expensive, for example, even when they are made with American steel. When President Trump raised steel tariffs in 2018, Cleveland-Cliffs and U.S. Steel raised their prices, too, largely because they could get away with it. Reducing competition is the point of many tariffs.

This does, however, reinforce Mr. Luskin’s argument that tariffs are poor revenue raisers. Governments collect only a fraction of the higher prices that consumers pay thanks to tariffs. Much of the rest is corporate welfare.

TrendMacro chief investment officer reacts positively to President Donald Trump's impact on monetary policy and the financial sector.

Trendmacro CIO Don Luskin weighs in on DOGE's calls to cut back on bank regulators, the economic impact of mass deportations and housing affordability.

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin offers his analysis after Jamie Dimon's criticism of the economy under Biden-Harris on 'The Evening Edit.'

Don Luskin of Trend Macrolytics writes in a note to clients today:

"There have been highly volatile days as the presidential election landscape has chaotically emerged. But stocks have been in a less than 14% trading range despite what remains a maximally uncertain outcome poised at 50/50 in the polls, the prediction markets and the models – with both candidates continually improvising ill-considered economic policy proposals. With stocks at all-time highs as Trump’s polling has recently improved, it may be that markets are signaling a slight preference for Trumponomics. House control is 50/50, also. If Senate control were 50/50, the joint probability of one-party control of government by either party would be 25%."

But Mr. Luskin argues that Senate control isn’t 50/50. In his view Republican Senate control is now assured “with West Virginia and Montana in the bag.” He writes:

"The joint probability of one-party control remains 25%, but it can only be by Republicans. That opens the possibility for the extension of expiring provisions of the 2017 tax cuts. But there remains a 75% probability of gridlock, pointing to general stability of economic policy no matter who wins the presidency."

Don Luskin, the chief investment officer of TrendMacro, reacts to the CBS News Vice Presidential Debate on 'The Evening Edit.' 

TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin reacts to former President Trump debuting another new tax break proposal and other taxes that are hurting Americans on 'The Evening Edit.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald Luskin joins ‘Mornings with Maria’ to provide analysis of revised labor market data.

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin discusses inflation from Biden-Harris economic policies on 'The Evening Edit.'

TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin reacts to Vice President Kamala Harris' economic plan on 'The Evening Edit.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin provides his market outlook heading into the 2024 election on 'Morning with Maria.'

A low fertility rate means fewer young adults entering the workforce to replace retirees, leading to labor shortages—unless immigration makes up the difference. In a recent analysis published in these pages, TrendMacro CEO Donald Luskin estimated that foreign-born people represent 80% of the adult-population increase in the U.S. since July 2022 and account for 71% of the 2.5 million new jobs. Without these workers, he estimated, the economy would have grown “less than a third as much as it actually has.”

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin discusses the impact of immigration on the labor market on 'Making Money.'

In a departure from our regular interviews, Sprott’s John Hathaway is joined be Luke Gromen and Don Luskin for a lively debate on the economy.

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin explains why markets should not fear deflation on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin reacts to Biden blaming higher food prices on corporate greed on 'Making Money.'

Trend Macrolytics founder and CIO Donald Luskin argues interest rates are not restrictive on a 'booming' economy and that short-term traders currently have 'viable' market options.

A "fireside chat" with Donald Luskin, founder of TrendMacro, at the recent CFA Society of Minnesota annual dinner reminded me of the importance of paying attention to productivity. (There was no fireplace but a colorful bouquet of flowers instead.) The CFA Society of Minnesota is one of the oldest chapters of the CFA Institute, issuer of the chartered financial analyst designation.

During his remarks, Luskin made a compelling case for inflation turning into mild deflation — a decline in the overall price level — later this year. He also stressed in his analysis why improvements in productivity weren't ephemeral after emerging from the dramatic economic trauma of the pandemic. In addition to the workforce and business investment gains achieved during the pandemic disruption, he sees the rise of artificial intelligence boosting productivity in the long haul.

The best analysis of this possibility to date is by my old friend Donald Luskin at TrendMacro whose nouse on these matters has always been excellent. On February 8th, his team released a report called How Biden and Trump Can Both Lose. Easily. For months, he has said that there is a 50:50 chance of a contingent election, but now he goes much further and says it’s becoming a central scenario.

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin analyzes the Federal Reserve's moves to regulate the economy on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin says it is almost ‘certain’ that the Republicans will take the Senate in 2024 on ‘Making Money.

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin predicts the Fed will cut rates faster than they normally would in 2024 because they fear deflation on 'Making Money.'

Ahead of the December meeting, one economist argued the Federal Reserve's "dangerously high" interest rate hikes are transitory, and that the Fed will make cuts in the first quarter of next year.

On "Mornings with Maria," Monday, TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin explained his frustration with the Fed's rate hike campaign and his economic outlook. 

"Please, please, please, can we all stop listening to Jay Powell? Please. Mr. Inflation is transitory. He is still so embarrassed about that one. He's now insisting that his dangerously high-interest rates are not transitory. Oh, they will be," Luskin said. "Inflation is collapsing and he knows it. It's turning into deflation like I warned last time we talked. There will be rate cuts in Q1."

TrendMacro CIO Don Luskin and Newedge Wealth CIO Cameron Dawson discuss whether the Fed could lower interest rates as soon as the first quarter of 2024 on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald Luskin looks ahead to the October consumer price index and its impact on markets.

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Donald Luskin reacts to oil prices rallying as attacks on Israel could fuel tensions in the Middle East.

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin provides insight on the Federal Reserve's moves on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin says a growing economy is 'like a growing boy' on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin details how investors can tread an unpredictable market on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin unpacks disinflation and investing in stocks on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin gives his take on the Federal Reserve's response to rising consumer prices on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald Luskin provides insight on the Fed's response to inflation on 'Mornings with Maria.'

The money supply doesn’t tell the whole story.

TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin provides insight on the debt ceiling debate and the Fed's policies on 'Making Money.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin reacts to the arraignment of President Trump and provides investing advice on 'Making Money.'

Inflation has everyone’s attention. In this podcast, economist and financial analyst Don Luskin explains to IPI’s Merrill Matthews why the rapid increase in the money supply caused the inflation. And the declining money supply means inflation is on its way down.

...the sharp decline in the money supply that began last year will lead to rapid disinflation in the coming months and perhaps a recession. Wall Street forecaster Ed Hyman of Evercore ISI and Don Luskin of Trend Macro are anticipating similar inflation declines and are warning about the risk of recession. They note that Milton Friedman said monetary policy works with “long and variable lags” of a year or two.

TrendMacro chief investment officer gives his take on the Federal Reserve's response to record-high inflation on 'Making Money.'

Regarding Donald Luskin’s op-ed “The Feds Don’t Want You Betting on Elections” (Nov. 2): Listed futures contracts must serve some commercial purpose, such as hedging grain or currencies. A futures contract for $2 on Backfire in the third race at Pimlico, however, would be gambling. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is saying that electoral futures are gambling, not commercial.

TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin provides insight on the United States' GDP on 'Making Money.'

Mr. Luskin founded a company, Trend Macrolytics, after a long and distinguished career in the investment sector of the economy... Three years ago, Mr. Luskin relocated his business to Dallas from Chicago... As Luskin says you can see it in their eyes. He told me "When there is opportunity, upward mobility, the way people act accelerates that opportunity into a virtuous cycle. When there is upward mobility, everyone you meet might be someone who can help you move up, so you are always nice, always positive, always helpful, always respectful, always putting your best foot forward. That attitude creates bonds of commitment and trust that are essential to the environment of opportunity. It is therefore a self-fulfilling prophecy. The opposite is true too. When people think there is no opportunity, they act rude, bitter, resentful, untrusting. Even if there were opportunity, that would destroy it."  

TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald Luskin provides insight on energy production on 'Making Money.'

Don Luskin, Chief Investment Officer of TrendMacro, explains why inflation is already in decline and is going to recede faster than most have expected. With IPI Resident Scholar Dr. Merrill Matthews and IPI President Tom Giovanetti.

The government wants you to think its policies are reducing inflation. This isn’t the truth. Inflation is going away because government money infusion is over. Inflation is always a monetary problem of too much money chasing too few goods. The COVID lockdown saw the greatest infusion of money in the shortest time in the history of the world at a time when the economy that was shut down. That spending is over and the economy is turning out goods and services again, so the cause of the inflation has ended. Neither the inflation reduction act nor the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is responsible for the waning inflation, but they could bring it back.

TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin calls the push to hire more IRS agents an 'invasive' 'state apparatus.'

TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald Luskin gives his take on the consequences of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve on 'Making Money.'

Trendmacro CIO Donald Luskin reacts to Jay Powell's handling of record-high inflation and flight cancellations on 'Making Money with Charles Payne.'

TrendMacro CIO weighs in on the controversy over the Tesla CEO's bid to control Twitter on 'Making Money.'