TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin offers his analysis after Jamie Dimon's criticism of the economy under Biden-Harris on 'The Evening Edit.'
Media Appearances
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin discusses the economic struggles hitting various industries under the Biden-Harris administration on 'The Evening Edit.'
Don Luskin of Trend Macrolytics writes in a note to clients today:
"There have been highly volatile days as the presidential election landscape has chaotically emerged. But stocks have been in a less than 14% trading range despite what remains a maximally uncertain outcome poised at 50/50 in the polls, the prediction markets and the models – with both candidates continually improvising ill-considered economic policy proposals. With stocks at all-time highs as Trump’s polling has recently improved, it may be that markets are signaling a slight preference for Trumponomics. House control is 50/50, also. If Senate control were 50/50, the joint probability of one-party control of government by either party would be 25%."
But Mr. Luskin argues that Senate control isn’t 50/50. In his view Republican Senate control is now assured “with West Virginia and Montana in the bag.” He writes:
"The joint probability of one-party control remains 25%, but it can only be by Republicans. That opens the possibility for the extension of expiring provisions of the 2017 tax cuts. But there remains a 75% probability of gridlock, pointing to general stability of economic policy no matter who wins the presidency."
Will the Fed continue to cut? Is there still a possibility of a recession? What’s the trajectory for gold? To tackle these timely questions David Rosenberg and Don Luskin join Ed Coyne and John Hathaway for round two of our Sprott Debate series.
Don Luskin, the chief investment officer of TrendMacro, reacts to the CBS News Vice Presidential Debate on 'The Evening Edit.'
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin says Fed Chair Powell is the most wrong Fed chairman in 'history' on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin reacts to former President Trump debuting another new tax break proposal and other taxes that are hurting Americans on 'The Evening Edit.'
TrendMacro CEO Don Luskin reacts to Elizabeth Warren's push for bigger Fed rate cuts before the election on 'The Big Money Show.'
TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald Luskin joins ‘Mornings with Maria’ to provide analysis of revised labor market data.
TrendMacro CIO Don Luskin believes the Fed may not cut as much as other experts expect. As Don discusses with Oliver Renick, he points to job and inflation trends, and talks about why the markets may be "obsessed with rate cuts."
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin discusses inflation from Biden-Harris economic policies on 'The Evening Edit.'
TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin discusses the economic ideas that Vice President Kamala Harris is campaigning on and the myriad of revisions on job report numbers on ‘The Evening Edit.’
TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin reacts to Vice President Kamala Harris' economic plan on 'The Evening Edit.'
TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin discusses the sell-off as recession fears spark turmoil throughout the global markets.
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin provides his market outlook heading into the 2024 election on 'Morning with Maria.'
TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin argues concerns over America's debt and inflation are being blown out of proportion on 'Making Money.'
A low fertility rate means fewer young adults entering the workforce to replace retirees, leading to labor shortages—unless immigration makes up the difference. In a recent analysis published in these pages, TrendMacro CEO Donald Luskin estimated that foreign-born people represent 80% of the adult-population increase in the U.S. since July 2022 and account for 71% of the 2.5 million new jobs. Without these workers, he estimated, the economy would have grown “less than a third as much as it actually has.”
TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin reacts to Biden saying he will quadruple the tariff on Chinese electric vehicles on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin discusses the impact of immigration on the labor market on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin discusses the market response to turmoil in the Middle East and comments on the overall state of the U.S. economy.
In a departure from our regular interviews, Sprott’s John Hathaway is joined be Luke Gromen and Don Luskin for a lively debate on the economy.
TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin discusses whether inflation or affordability is the bigger issue for consumers on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin explains why markets should not fear deflation on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin breaks down the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight on ‘Mornings with Maria.’
TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin reacts to Biden blaming higher food prices on corporate greed on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin discusses whether the Fed has credibility issues on 'Making Money.'
Trend Macrolytics founder and CIO Donald Luskin argues interest rates are not restrictive on a 'booming' economy and that short-term traders currently have 'viable' market options.
The Wall Street Journal's Paul Gigot interviews TrendMacro CEO Donald Luskin on January's bad inflation numbers, the risk of recession and the prospect of deflation.
A "fireside chat" with Donald Luskin, founder of TrendMacro, at the recent CFA Society of Minnesota annual dinner reminded me of the importance of paying attention to productivity. (There was no fireplace but a colorful bouquet of flowers instead.) The CFA Society of Minnesota is one of the oldest chapters of the CFA Institute, issuer of the chartered financial analyst designation.
During his remarks, Luskin made a compelling case for inflation turning into mild deflation — a decline in the overall price level — later this year. He also stressed in his analysis why improvements in productivity weren't ephemeral after emerging from the dramatic economic trauma of the pandemic. In addition to the workforce and business investment gains achieved during the pandemic disruption, he sees the rise of artificial intelligence boosting productivity in the long haul.
TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin analyzes the Fed's inflation strategy ahead of the January CPI report on 'Making Money.'
The best analysis of this possibility to date is by my old friend Donald Luskin at TrendMacro whose nouse on these matters has always been excellent. On February 8th, his team released a report called How Biden and Trump Can Both Lose. Easily. For months, he has said that there is a 50:50 chance of a contingent election, but now he goes much further and says it’s becoming a central scenario.
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin analyzes the Fed's relationship with the Treasury Department on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin analyzes the Federal Reserve's moves to regulate the economy on 'Making Money.'
"No hard landing, no soft landing, no landing at all. We're in a boom. There's no other word for it."
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin says it is almost ‘certain’ that the Republicans will take the Senate in 2024 on ‘Making Money.
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin reflects on his greatest financial hits and misses of the year on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin predicts the Fed will cut rates faster than they normally would in 2024 because they fear deflation on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin pushes back against the Fed's claim that growth causes inflation on 'Making Money.'
Ahead of the December meeting, one economist argued the Federal Reserve's "dangerously high" interest rate hikes are transitory, and that the Fed will make cuts in the first quarter of next year.
On "Mornings with Maria," Monday, TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin explained his frustration with the Fed's rate hike campaign and his economic outlook.
"Please, please, please, can we all stop listening to Jay Powell? Please. Mr. Inflation is transitory. He is still so embarrassed about that one. He's now insisting that his dangerously high-interest rates are not transitory. Oh, they will be," Luskin said. "Inflation is collapsing and he knows it. It's turning into deflation like I warned last time we talked. There will be rate cuts in Q1."
TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin shares his economic outlook on ‘Mornings with Maria.’
TrendMacro CIO Don Luskin and Newedge Wealth CIO Cameron Dawson discuss whether the Fed could lower interest rates as soon as the first quarter of 2024 on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin explains how deflation can help fix the government's inflation problem on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald Luskin looks ahead to the October consumer price index and its impact on markets.
TrendMacro CIO Don Luskin argues the Fed is still 'pretending' the US has an inflation problem even though it's largely been conquered on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Donald Luskin reacts to oil prices rallying as attacks on Israel could fuel tensions in the Middle East.
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin reveals why he is bullish on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin provides insight on the Federal Reserve's moves on 'Making Money.'
"We’re going to have outright deflation." Luskin sees now as an opportunity to lay out some shorts in anticipation of weakness to come.
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin says a growing economy is 'like a growing boy' on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Donald Luskin joins ‘Mornings with Maria’ to discuss the Fed’s potential to continue to raise rates and its impact on bank stocks.
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin details how investors can tread an unpredictable market on 'Making Money.'
FOX Business host Charles Payne and TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin weigh in on the Sam Bankman-Fried saga and term limits for officials on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin unpacks disinflation and investing in stocks on 'Making Money.'
Fox News contributor Liz Peek and Trend Macrolytics CIO Donald Luskin discuss former President Donald Trump and President Biden’s South Carolina visits on ‘The Evening Edit.’
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin gives his take on the Federal Reserve's response to rising consumer prices on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald L. Luskin weighs in on House Speaker McCarthy's debt deal with President Biden on 'The Evening Edit.'
TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald Luskin provides insight on the Fed's response to inflation on 'Mornings with Maria.'
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin gives his take on the debt bill on 'Making Money.'
The money supply doesn’t tell the whole story.
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin provides insight on inflation on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin provides insight on the debt ceiling debate and the Fed's policies on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin gives his take on businesses throwing in the towel on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin reacts to the arraignment of President Trump and provides investing advice on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin calls out Fed Chair Powell's leadership on 'Making Money.'
Inflation has everyone’s attention. In this podcast, economist and financial analyst Don Luskin explains to IPI’s Merrill Matthews why the rapid increase in the money supply caused the inflation. And the declining money supply means inflation is on its way down.
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin reacts to inaccurate data surveys that erode public trust in the market on 'Making Money.'
...the sharp decline in the money supply that began last year will lead to rapid disinflation in the coming months and perhaps a recession. Wall Street forecaster Ed Hyman of Evercore ISI and Don Luskin of Trend Macro are anticipating similar inflation declines and are warning about the risk of recession. They note that Milton Friedman said monetary policy works with “long and variable lags” of a year or two.
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin reacts to President Biden's response to the Chinese spy balloon on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro chief investment officer gives his take on the Federal Reserve's response to record-high inflation on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro chief investment officer reacts to the FTX scandal and reveals the recipe for a good life on 'Making Money.'
Regarding Donald Luskin’s op-ed “The Feds Don’t Want You Betting on Elections” (Nov. 2): Listed futures contracts must serve some commercial purpose, such as hedging grain or currencies. A futures contract for $2 on Backfire in the third race at Pimlico, however, would be gambling. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is saying that electoral futures are gambling, not commercial.
TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald Luskin argues the impact of shutting down election betting silences 'free speech about politics.'
TrendMacro chief investment officer Don Luskin provides insight on the United States' GDP on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald Luskin reacts to PayPal fining users $2,500 for sharing misinformation on 'Making Money.'
Mr. Luskin founded a company, Trend Macrolytics, after a long and distinguished career in the investment sector of the economy... Three years ago, Mr. Luskin relocated his business to Dallas from Chicago... As Luskin says you can see it in their eyes. He told me "When there is opportunity, upward mobility, the way people act accelerates that opportunity into a virtuous cycle. When there is upward mobility, everyone you meet might be someone who can help you move up, so you are always nice, always positive, always helpful, always respectful, always putting your best foot forward. That attitude creates bonds of commitment and trust that are essential to the environment of opportunity. It is therefore a self-fulfilling prophecy. The opposite is true too. When people think there is no opportunity, they act rude, bitter, resentful, untrusting. Even if there were opportunity, that would destroy it."
TrendMacro chief investment officer shreds President Joe Biden's comments on record-high inflation and weighs in on government programs on 'Making Money with Charles Payne.'
TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald Luskin provides insight on energy production on 'Making Money.'
Is inflation rolling over? What caused it? How long will it take to get back to normal?
Don Luskin, Chief Investment Officer of TrendMacro, explains why inflation is already in decline and is going to recede faster than most have expected. With IPI Resident Scholar Dr. Merrill Matthews and IPI President Tom Giovanetti.
TrendMacro CIO weighs in on states sending out checks to combat rising inflation on 'Making Money with Charles Payne.'
The government wants you to think its policies are reducing inflation. This isn’t the truth. Inflation is going away because government money infusion is over. Inflation is always a monetary problem of too much money chasing too few goods. The COVID lockdown saw the greatest infusion of money in the shortest time in the history of the world at a time when the economy that was shut down. That spending is over and the economy is turning out goods and services again, so the cause of the inflation has ended. Neither the inflation reduction act nor the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is responsible for the waning inflation, but they could bring it back.
TrendMacro Chief Investment Officer Don Luskin gives his take on the Federal Reserve's response to record-high inflation on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin calls the push to hire more IRS agents an 'invasive' 'state apparatus.'
"Since the onset of the pandemic, lawmakers have spent about $6 trillion on various income-support programs for households and businesses," wrote Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of TrendMacro, in a piece in The Wall Street Journal. "That all dropped straight into the bank accounts that are part of M2, which also grew about $6 trillion over precisely the same period." 2 is cash in circulation along with liquid bank and money-market fund balances.
Luskin quoted famed economist Milton Friedman who said that "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". Growth in M2 peaked at an astronomical 27 percent in February 2021, but has been falling since, Luskin said.
TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald Luskin gives his take on the consequences of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve on 'Making Money.'
Paul Gigot interviews TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin on jobs day -- why the drop in labor force participation, and why is all the job growth in red states?
Trendmacro CIO Donald Luskin reacts to Jay Powell's handling of record-high inflation and flight cancellations on 'Making Money with Charles Payne.'
TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin reacts to the Biden administration allegedly downplaying recession possibilities while Americans struggle with record-high inflation on 'Making Money.'
Don Luskin and Rep. Lee Zeldin provide insight on record-high inflation on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro CIO weighs in on the controversy over the Tesla CEO's bid to control Twitter on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro chief investment officer Donald Luskin weighs in on rising crime after the Brooklyn train shooting suspect was arrested and gives his take on inflation on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro chief investment officer provides economic strategies to lower inflation and interest rates on 'Making Money.'
TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin says the Biden administration has a 'knowledge problem' about the trucking industry.
TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin argues the Federal Reserve can't really do anything about inflation.
TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin discusses California's green energy goals on 'Making Money.'
IRF’s JP Smith is joined by Donald Luskin of TrendMacro in this riveting podcast where Donald iterates his view that the post-pandemic bull market is not over. Recalling past crises, Donald remarks that such events promote rapid innovation. In the case of the Covid-19 pandemic, technological innovations have partly facilitated vast growth. Thus, despite the challenge of reliably measuring productivity and a workforce reduced by 5 million, US GDP on a real inflation adjusted basis is far higher than pre-pandemic levels. Addressing the elephant in the room, the looming impact of the Omicron variant, Donald draws on TrendMacro's COVID-19 pandemic and impact of lockdowns model which provides insights on the supposed benefits, or lack of benefits, from implementing lockdowns. Additionally, he expresses his view that inflation is transitory and that the bond market does not reflect the views of many prominent economic thinkers. Donald further shares his thoughts on commodities and in particular, oil – which is experiencing a demand shortfall due to reduced global mobility.
TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin argues Democrats 'just want to put on a show' by slamming Sen. Joe Manchin given House representatives are up for reelection next year.
Don Luskin of TrendMacrolytics writes in a note to clients today: "Global real rates and yields are now the lowest in the history of the data." His data goes back decades and he notes that 10-year government bonds in the U.S., Europe and much of the rest of the world are yielding less than inflation. Lately in the United States, inflation has been outrunning the yield on the 10-year Treasury by more than five full percentage points. This brutal negative real return is worse than anything investors have received since an inflation event that really did prove to be transitory.