All of this suggests that the communist who runs China has no interest in embracing freer trade with the United States. But Don Luskin of Trend Macrolytics argues that to avoid an economic calamity and resulting social unrest, Mr. Xi will have to cut a deal with the U.S. In a note to clients this week, Mr. Luskin writes that the arrest in Canada of Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of Chinese telecom giant Huawei, is only adding to the pressure on Mr. Xi:
"Indeed, the greatest effect of the Meng arrest, we think, has been to elicit an outpouring of global support for the move and condemnation of China, and a catalyzing of what is developing into a global boycott of Huawei and ZTE products. With the US’s global allies having been conspicuously silent on trade issues, it would seem that there is nevertheless a great willingness to stand up and be counted on security issues.
"Since the Buenos Aires summit – falsely called in the media a mere 'truce' – the US has continued to exert every form of pressure that was in place before (indeed, added pressure through the Meng arrest), while China has laid down its arms: it has resumed buying US agricultural products, dropped retaliatory tariffs on US autos, and announced it will re-engineer its provocative – and seemingly sacrosanct – Made In China 2025 doctrine.
"So make no mistake about it – we are getting to 'yes' with a very high probability."
Let’s hope Mr. Luskin is right on China. No word yet on whether he can persuade Times contributors to stop contemplating mass suicide.