Real QDP at 2.3% for Q4-2024 disappoints us -- we were looking for 3% (but the Fed thinks only 1.8% is possible). The miss factor was inventory contraction, which is a surprise considering how tight inventories are. On the investment side, formation of intellectual property capital continues to be the engine of growth.
US GDP
US GDP
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Real GDP grows 2.8% (a boom -- the Fed thinks the equilibrium rate is 1.80%). Prices for gross domestic purchases rose 1.80% (a disinflationary home run -- the Fed's target is 2.0%). Be happy in your work.
US GDP
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Q2 real GDP growth at 2.8% SAAR blows by the consensus for 2.0%, and the Fed's fantasy that the economy is only capable of 1.8%. But it confirms our vision of a post-pandemic productivity-led boom. Fun detail: the price index for gross domestic purchases rose at a near-target 2.30%, down from 3.10% in Q1, when growth was slower. So much for another Fed fantasy: that growth causes inflation.
US GDP
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
So now the first rate cut is pushed to December, per the futures market. Because Q1 PCE inflation came in hot for the first quarter? Yes it did, but we already knew that from looking at CPI inflation. Don't worry. The Fed will take comfort from the below-consensus growth data -- which actually shows a boom in fixed investment.
US GDP
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Did we call it, or what? 3.3% real GDP growth for the quarter, steaming past the highest estimates and following an outright blow-out the previous quarter. Oh, wait, that's not even the best part. Price increases for gross domestic purchases were just 1.9%. Hint: that's below the Fed's target.
US GDP
Thursday, October 26, 2023
At 4.9%, Q3 real GDP split the difference between the Atlanta Fed's model at 5.4%, and the consensus at 4.5%. By avoiding the dreaded 5-handle, maybe this keeps the Fed from imagining too much prosperity will cause inflation. But it's a boom. If you have to find something to be skeptical about, worry about strong inventory growth (but you can tell yourself that will buffer future inflation impulses).
US GDP
Thursday, July 27, 2023
What you're not hearing about this morning's GDP release is probably something the Fed isn't seeing in its willful blindness: inflation in gross domestic purchases is below target at 1.9% for Q2, down from 3.8% in Q1.
US GDP
Thursday, April 27, 2023
Q1 real GDP at 1.1% is a miss versus the consensus for 1.9%. Housing contracted slightly, but the big disappointment was inventories (if it weren't for their 2.3% decline, GDP growth would have been 3.4%). This doesn't mean inventories were heavily liquidated -- they weren't at all. They just ever so slightly reversed last quarter's strong pace of growth.
US GDP
Thursday, January 26, 2023
A new high for US real GDP, 5.1% above the pre-pandemic peak with no more people working to achieve it. GDP has grown 16.2% from the recession trough (given its severity, the historical trend would predict only 13.7%). Nice details in the quarter: inflation in gross domestic purchases ran only 3.2% at an annual rate, down from 4.8% in Q3. And nominal personal income grew 6.9%, up from 5.9%. No recession so far, that's for sure.
US GDP
Thursday, October 27, 2022
Let's see -- that's the best GDP quarter this year, and the only positive one. Maybe the Fed should crank interest rates even higher and we'll get even more improvement.