A new high for US real GDP, 5.1% above the pre-pandemic peak with no more people working to achieve it. GDP has grown 16.2% from the recession trough (given its severity, the historical trend would predict only 13.7%). Nice details in the quarter: inflation in gross domestic purchases ran only 3.2% at an annual rate, down from 4.8% in Q3. And nominal personal income grew 6.9%, up from 5.9%. No recession so far, that's for sure.
US GDP
US GDP
Thursday, October 27, 2022
Let's see -- that's the best GDP quarter this year, and the only positive one. Maybe the Fed should crank interest rates even higher and we'll get even more improvement.
US GDP
Thursday, July 28, 2022
An upturn in exports narrows Q2 contraction to 0.9% SAAR, missing expectations but beating the Atlanta Fed estimate of 1.2%. The big determinant on the downside was the slowing of inventories (don't tell Walmart). Let's not talk about an "official recession" now. There is no such thing, and if there were, this alone wouldn't prove it. By the way, look at the chart on the top of page 3. Today's GDP is precisely what history would lead us to expect given the size and distance in the past of the prior recession.
US GDP
Thursday, January 27, 2022
Wow... 6.9% real growth, the best quarter of an already amazing year. As we expected, it was led by an historic inventory build. More of that to come -- too many shelves still empty.
US GDP
Thursday, October 28, 2021
Real GDP Q3: 2.0% SAAR. The consensus was 2.6%. The Atlanta Fed model said a mere 0.195%. It's more than all attributable to a build in inventories from all-time lows.
US GDP
Thursday, July 29, 2021
V-shaped recovery more than complete. Riding a surge-tide of consumption expenditures, real GDP makes new all-time highs despite almost 7 million fewer payrolls.
US GDP
Thursday, April 29, 2021
Disposable personal income per capita up 67% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q1. You have just one guess...
US GDP
Thursday, January 28, 2021
What an amazing world -- a quarter with 4% real GDP growth is a disappointment.
US GDP
Thursday, October 29, 2020
The best quarter for real growth in history. Unfortunately it follows the worst, and output remains 3.5% below the Q4-19 peak -- under the circumstances, a miracle.