The BLS coyly demurs to estimate the storm impacts that might have led to a mere 12,000 net payrolls. But the Household Survey, which they say went off without a hitch, says 512,000 people are out of work due to weather. In a typical October that's 52,000. The inescapable conclusion is that 461,000 are unemployed thanks to Milton and Helene. This report might be a blockbuster in disguise.
US Jobs
US Jobs
Friday, October 4, 2024
We told you not to worry that "the Fed knows something scary you don't know" about the labor market. We're in a boom. No recession. Oh, and by the way, the so-called Sahm Rule reversed itself. Another trusty old technical indicator bites the dust.
US Jobs
Friday, September 6, 2024
A miss in August payrolls, but a big sequential improvement over July, especially with downward revisions. The household survey beats payrolls (for a change), and the unemployment rate ticks down slightly. Labor force at new highs. Hours worked at new highs. Is that recession in the room with you right now?
US Jobs
Friday, August 2, 2024
114,000 payrolls is the lowest since April at 108,000 (and that proved to be the first month of a quarter with 2.8% real GDP growth). The unemployment rate rose, but not enough to trigger the dreaded Sahm Rule. And adjusted for rising labor force participation, it barely rose at all. Considering the fear in the air this week, this was a very solid jobs report (and it will certainly do nothing to derail the Fed's intention to start cutting rates at the September FOMC).
US Jobs
Friday, July 5, 2024
Big downward revisions to the prior two months of payrolls, but a beat for June. The immigrant population and employment levels appear to have shrunk, and the native born appear to have expanded -- but these are not seasonally adjusted, so we really can't tell from month the month. It seems unlikely that Biden's tepid border-control policy changes could have made any difference so soon (and no matter how successful they are, they wouldn't have caused the native-born population to expand).
US Jobs
Friday, June 7, 2024
So much for "labor market weakness" -- yet another stunning beat for payrolls. But employment in the household survey fell overall, with large growth in foreign-born employment more than offset by shrinkage in native-born employment. Our model agrees with payrolls, so we're going to say this is another month of good news for the post-pandemic productivity-led boom. But hard to say how this mixed bag will affect the Fed next week. Happily, that doesn't matter much anymore.
US Jobs
Thursday, May 2, 2024
A headline miss, but objectively a perfectly fine number and completely in-line with our model's expectations. The deceleration in average hourly earnings growth is very Fed-friendly.
US Jobs
Friday, April 5, 2024
No ambiguity this month! Boom! Payrolls beat. Confirmed by Household Survey. Wage growth tame. Boom!
US Jobs
Friday, March 8, 2024
A headline beat, but January's blockbuster was revised lower. Tiny average hourly earnings growth. This is a very Fed-friendly report.
US Jobs
Friday, February 2, 2024
Crazy! A blockbuster payroll number is even bigger than it looks, given annual benchmark revisions. And employment in the household survey is reported as contracting, but it's actually expanding when you account for annual population control adjustments. But then again, without seasonal adjustments, America lost 2.6 million jobs in January. Fun with statistics! More later...