A gigantic payroll beat that is just too good to be true. It's not confirmed by any other contemporaneous labor market indicator.
US Jobs
US Jobs
Friday, September 1, 2023
The Fed's going to love this. The unemployment rate rises as 736,000 people enter the workforce, enlarging the output gap and driving average hourly earnings growth down to the lowest rate in 19 months. And JOLTS jobs openings are suddenly back below trend. There's been no reason (by our reasoning) for the last few rate hike, and now there's good reason (by the Fed's reasoning) for further ones.
US Jobs
Friday, August 4, 2023
Payrolls missed, but the Fed isn't going to like this. Average hourly earnings growth was hot, on top of a big upward revision to June. But the Atlanta Wage-Tracker shows the gains for jobs-switchers are evaporating.
US Jobs
Friday, July 7, 2023
A small miss versus consensus -- and a big miss versus our model -- and all that with the bar lowered by large downward revisions to the prior months. But 209,000 payrolls is a solid number that passes the smell-test for credibility, and it is confirmed by the household survey at 273,000.
US Jobs
Friday, June 2, 2023
This is weird. Payrolls rise by an amazing 339,000. But according to the household survey, employment fell by 310,000. One screen, two movies.
US Jobs
Friday, May 5, 2023
A beat for payrolls, but the bar was lowered by revisions. The bump in hourly earnings puts Powell in a bind.
US Jobs
Friday, April 7, 2023
It's a win-win, but too soon to have seen any Silicon Valley Bank effects. Average hourly earnings rise (which is good for workers), but barely enough to make up for their sharp downward revision for last month (which is good for Powell).
US Jobs
Friday, March 10, 2023
No recession indicator here. At all. Tiny revisions to last month's "fluke" payroll report, and another big one. You can't blame the seasonal adjustments this time -- they cut the other direction (they made payrolls fewer, not more in February).
US Jobs
Friday, February 3, 2023
The good news is that 517,000 net payroll gains rules our recession for now. The bad news is that it was a contraction of 2.5 million without the seasonal adjustment.