This is weird. Payrolls rise by an amazing 339,000. But according to the household survey, employment fell by 310,000. One screen, two movies.
US Jobs
US Jobs
Friday, May 5, 2023
A beat for payrolls, but the bar was lowered by revisions. The bump in hourly earnings puts Powell in a bind.
US Jobs
Friday, April 7, 2023
It's a win-win, but too soon to have seen any Silicon Valley Bank effects. Average hourly earnings rise (which is good for workers), but barely enough to make up for their sharp downward revision for last month (which is good for Powell).
US Jobs
Friday, March 10, 2023
No recession indicator here. At all. Tiny revisions to last month's "fluke" payroll report, and another big one. You can't blame the seasonal adjustments this time -- they cut the other direction (they made payrolls fewer, not more in February).
US Jobs
Friday, February 3, 2023
The good news is that 517,000 net payroll gains rules our recession for now. The bad news is that it was a contraction of 2.5 million without the seasonal adjustment.
US Jobs
Friday, December 2, 2022
Oh no, Mr. Bill! Average hourly wages are up big. Too much prosperity. Capitalism is working too well. The Fed must now cause a recession.
US Jobs
Friday, November 4, 2022
Something for everyone. Powell will love it that the unemployment rate ticked up, because he doesn't want so many people working. We will love it because there were almost three times as many new payrolls as there were new worker (we like it when people are working).
US Jobs
Friday, October 7, 2022
The weakest payroll gains this year, but markets are acting like that's not nearly weak enough to slake Powell's thirst for the poverty of American workers.
US Jobs
Friday, September 2, 2022
Neat trick to fool Powell -- the unemployment rate is up, but it's because the labor force expanded (yes, the "over-tight" labor force that wasn't supposed to be able to expand -- that one).