Big moves higher in US PMIs, both manufacturing and services. Uhhh... still waiting for all those lag effects to cause a recession (hint: maybe they're not going to).
Global PMI
Global PMI
Friday, January 5, 2024
Don't read too much into the big miss in US services PMI just now, at 50.6 (consensus was 52.5). It was at 49.2 a year ago, and we had a boom year in 2023. It was lower than now, at 50.3 in May, and then the following quarter was about 5% real GDP growth.
Global PMI
Tuesday, December 5, 2023
Global manufacturing PMIs are recovering. Nice uptick in US services. The recession everyone's been expecting remains on hold.
Global PMI
Friday, November 3, 2023
US manufacturing PMI misses, as it falls to 51.8. That's not much less than average for the last 12 months (and no one should expect Q3's torrid growth to be duplicated anyway).
Global PMI
Wednesday, October 4, 2023
Europe surprises on the upside a little bit this month. US surprises on the downside a little bit this month.
Global PMI
Wednesday, September 6, 2023
US manufacturing PMI, representing a small part of the modern economy, is now two months off the bottom while still at a low level. But non-manufacturing just printed the best number in eight months, and at a high level indicating robust growth. Thank goodness prosperity doesn't cause inflation. Now if only the Fed knew that.
Global PMI
Thursday, August 3, 2023
Global PMIs generally weakened in July, with some notable exceptions such as India. In the US, manufacturing ticked up to a higher low reading still indicating contraction, and services ticked down to a lower high number indicating growth.
Global PMI
Thursday, July 6, 2023
US services PMI bounces back, at the same time as its prices-paid index falls to the lowest level since the depths of the pandemic lockdowns. Are you watching Jay-Hawk? We can have prosperity and disinflation at the same time.
Global PMI
Monday, June 5, 2023
US May services PMI falls, but still indicates growth. The amazing news is that the prices-paid index fell to its lowest level since the pandemic deflation. Our forecast is coming true: no landing, and the end of inflation.
Global PMI
Tuesday, May 2, 2023
US services PMI ticks up, in defiance of what is already an almost two-month-old banking crisis.