The divergence between US manufacturing and services just gets more stark. Manufacturing drifts lower, services accelerated what is already a boom.
Global PMI
Global PMI
Thursday, October 3, 2024
US services PMI blows the doors off with the highest reading in almost two years. One more time. No recession.
Global PMI
Thursday, September 5, 2024
PMI services rises, stays comfortably above 50, and beats estimates. PMI manufacturing earlier this week rose, too. Gee, if you didn't know there was a recession (because everyone keeps telling you there is) you wouldn't think we're in a recession (because we're not).
Global PMI
Monday, August 5, 2024
Sorry recession fans. You've got some ammo now, but the non-manufacturing ISM PMI at 51.4 doesn't help your case. And the S&P Global version at 55 is even more evidence that the vast services sector, explaining 85% of jobs, is doing just fine. In fact, services almost everywhere in the world look fine. It's good to be fine.
Global PMI
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Shocker! The ISM services PMI drops to 48.8, a low almost as bad as the worst of the pandemic depression. But it's also a shocker that S&P Global's equivalent index was 55.3, the highest in more than two years. We're beginning to think some of this data isn't reliable.
Global PMI
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Ha! We told you last month's sub-50 ISM services number would prove to be a fluke. Now, smashing the consensus by rising to 53.8, we're instantly back at 8-month highs.
Global PMI
Friday, May 3, 2024
A US non-manufacturing PMI print below 50, for the first time since December 2022. You remember December 2022. That was just before the economy resumed its post-pandemic boom despite unanimous recession fears. It's hard to square this number with the 8.8% upside surprise factor this earnings season -- the biggest since Q3-21. We're not dismissing data that counters our narrative -- the data is what it is, and we respect it. But we're going to look at the totality, including this morning's perfectly good jobs report.
Global PMI
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
It's all good. It's all very good. US manufacturing PMI the highest in 16 months, and US services PMI prices-paid is the lowest in four years.
Global PMI
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
The disconnect continues. Weak US manufacturing, strong US services.
Global PMI
Monday, February 5, 2024
Big moves higher in US PMIs, both manufacturing and services. Uhhh... still waiting for all those lag effects to cause a recession (hint: maybe they're not going to).