"Weirdly resilient." That's what we call this economy, despite the Fed's best efforts to destroy the demand side in order to save the supply side or something like that. There's mostly wonderful in this week's high-frequency data. Do your worst next week, Jay.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, September 8, 2022
Not enough pain yet for the sadists at the Fed -- a nice beat in new claims lowers the implied unemployment rate again.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, September 1, 2022
I big beat in new claims, and a drop in the claims-implied unemployment rate. That's entirely too little pain for Dungeon Master Powell.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, August 25, 2022
Bad news this morning in unemployment claims. Both new and continuing beat the consensus. Too many people earning a living. Time for the Fed to announce a recession (for our own good) at Jackson Hole.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, August 18, 2022
Beats in new and continuing claims lower the implied unemployment rate -- good for people trying to make a living, but bad in terms of scaring the FOMC into pulling back from more big rate hikes.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, August 11, 2022
After two and a half years, the "CDC is streamlining its COVID-19 guidance... This guidance acknowledges that the pandemic is not over, but also helps us move to a point where COVID-19 no longer severely disrupts our daily lives." In other words, after all this time of disrupting our lives, it turns out they didn't have to?
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, August 4, 2022
Hmmmm. The labor market is so tight, the claims-implied unemployment rate went down! What are we missing? What is Jay Powell missing?
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, July 28, 2022
Not a lot of strong recession evidence in the high-frequency data. New claims missed a little, continuing claims beat a lot. The implied unemployment rate is unchanged, lower than it was before the pandemic depression.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, July 21, 2022
New claims missed, and they've been stealthily creeping higher now for three weeks in a row. But the claims-implied unemployment rate remains an ultra-low 1.06%. In other high-frequency data, forward earnings growth is the only trouble-spot (unfortunately it's the most important).
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, July 14, 2022
In the high-frequency data, trouble spots are forward earnings, rail freight, and mobility. But the labor market is amazingly strong (the claims-implied unemployment rate fell sharply on the week).