High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor

Recession? What recession? Beats in new and continuing claims drive the implied unemployment rate to a new low at 1.04%, below the already low 1.33% before the pandemic.

Much-needed good news: our weighted Social Distancing Index still hasn't fallen back to the December lows, but now many individual states are showing less "stay-at-home" behavior than before the pandemic. The least locked-down states -- an odd assortment led by the odd-couple of Delaware and Alaska -- are now less locked down than ever.

Low-frequency GDP prints negative -- and at the same moment, high-frequency claims data shows an even lower implied unemployment rate than before the pandemic. Hmmmm....

The high-frequency data looks amazingly good -- but there was an uptick in new claims, and the implied unemployment rate did move up a couple basis points, from an unbelievable low level.