Everything is going really right. Claims beat again. And our real-time inflation indicator, "Truflation," is showing mild deflation as we wrap up November. So the CPI report the Fed sees just before the December FOMC meeting will be very favorable to another 25 bp rate cut.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, November 21, 2024
Claims low again. Claims beat again. The real news is that our "Truflation" real-time CPI tracker is now in outright deflation in November with two thirds of the month completed. This sets up for a great CPI number just before the December FOMC, breaking the little losing streak of misses that seem to be making the Fed think twice about another cut.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, November 14, 2024
Claims low again. Claims beat the consensus again. It's a beautiful world in the high-frequency data.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, November 7, 2024
Claims low -- and they beat the consensus. Forward earnings growth accelerates. President-elect Trump, you have your boom if you can keep it.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Claims beat yet again. That, and yesterday's ADP payrolls boom, is setting up for a nice jobs report tomorrow. The bad news is that it's the last day of the month, and the real-time "Truflation" CPI estimator is still pointing to a hot October, at 3.38% at an annual rate. That's a huge improvement from the scary estimates earlier this month, but it would still be a bad miss.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, October 24, 2024
A gigantic beat in new jobless claims is the good news. The bad news is that the "Truflation" real-time CPI simulator continues to show inflation running hot as October wraps up. It's setting up for a second-in-a-row miss when actual CPI data is released in November. That will be after the Fed meets, but they won't like it.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, October 17, 2024
Fear no more the heat of the sun, nor the winter's furious rages. Despite more storms, new jobless claims beat the consensus and fall sharply.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, October 10, 2024
The big news is the jump in new jobless claims. At 258,000 it's the biggest number since June 2023 -- which was the launchpoint for a subsequent 5% real GDP growth quarter. Obviously this is weather-related. But if it keeps the Fed on track for another 25 bp cut at the November FOMC, then even data-noise can be useful. It offsets this morning's miss in CPI (a miss that still has headline CPI below the Fed's target for the month). Market-implied probabilities of a November cut rose after the claims and CPI data were released.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, October 3, 2024
It's too soon to see an effect, if any, from the port strike. For now, the high-frequency data is lovely, with claims low (new ones missing slightly, continuing ones beating slightly). The only bad news is our "Truflation" real-time estimate of CPI, which continues to run quite hot.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Anyone who thinks the Fed is going to cut 50 bp again in November needs to look at this high-frequency data. New claims are incredibly low, and they beat the consensus. Our "Truflation" inflation indicator is ticking up MTD September, suggesting a bad miss when CPI is reported in mid-October.