A small miss in claims, but the number is still very low. Over all of January, new claims in California were only 10,000 despite the extreme dislocations caused by the Los Angeles fires. Separately, nationwide there is a new high in office utilization. People are still coming back, but utilization remains miles below the pre-pandemic levels.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, January 30, 2025
Big beats in both new and continuing claims, built in part on a surprising drop in claims in fire-stricken California.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, January 23, 2025
New and continuing jobless claims missed slightly, but remain low. There's only the smallest impact from the California fires -- this week's new claims very normal, last week's revised only a little higher. Is serious impact going to be delayed, or maybe will there be no impact? It's hard to get labor organized around new demands, but there is surely a great demand for it now in the rebuilding.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, January 16, 2025
Perfectly normal claims report -- too soon to see the inevitable effects of the Los Angeles fires. Our "Truflation" real-time inflation indicator, which correctly called yesterday's December CPI, is showing flat price growth so far with half of January under our belt.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Wednesday, January 8, 2025
God rest the soul of James Earl Carter. He did his best. Meanwhile, new claims beats yet again and our "Truflation" CPI estimate shows outright deflation so far in the New Year.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, January 2, 2025
A great start to the new year in high-frequency data, with nice beats in both new and continuing claims, and our "Truflation" CPI estimate showing mild deflation as December wraps up.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, December 26, 2024
We end the year of high-frequency data with a beat in new claims, and the lowest claims-implied unemployment rate since February. And with a couple days to go, our "Truflation" real-time CPI estimate shows outright deflation at an 0.60% annual rate.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, December 19, 2024
Jobless claims resume their lovely habit of beating expectations (especially nice given last week's large and unusual miss). For those on the Fed who think employment causes inflation, this will feel like justification for yesterday's panic.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, December 12, 2024
It's rare to get a miss in jobless claims, but we got a big one this morning. The absolute level is still low, but it's still attention-getting -- and one more little thread in the narrative that will keep the Fed on track for a cut at next week's FOMC.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, December 5, 2024
Initial claims miss a little bit, for the first time in many weeks. But continuing claims beat by more. The really key thing is that our "Truflation" real-time CPI indicator finished out November with an outright deflationary reading of -1.4% at an annual rate, setting up for a delicious beat just before the FOMC meets. So far December is showing a similar deflation.