It's official: the Chinese CDC is now responsible for reporting Covid case and fatality data, and it has now said it will only do so once a month. The first rule of Covid Club. You don't talk about Covid Club.
Covid-2019
Covid-2019
Wednesday, December 28, 2022
The media continues to flog the story that China is collapsing into chaos after re-opening from "Zero Covid" lockdowns. Mr. Market seems more worried that a re-opening China will put inflationary demand stress on commodities. But wait! Before that, wasn't Mr. Market worried that a locked-down China would put inflationary stress on supply chains?
Meanwhile, Justice Neil Gorsuch shows what true "originalist" principles are: he votes with the Supreme Court's liberals to end Title 42 border restrictions, because (no matter what you may think about border crossings at this point) you can't justify stopping them based on a Covid emergency that doesn't exist anymore. Nevertheless, the majority felt differently (with no explanation at all) -- so the restrictions stand.
Covid-2019
Tuesday, December 27, 2022
Here it is, in "Recommended Reading." The inevitable stock headline, this time applied to China: "...medical staff on frontline of China's COVID fight say hospitals are 'overwhelmed'". Meanwhile in the frosty US, even the New York Times has to admit it's getting near time to move on: "The Last Holdouts: What it's like to wear masks for Covid when most others have long since moved on."
Covid-2019
Monday, December 26, 2022
Headlines abound concerning China's decision to no longer publish daily Covid statistics. But the headlines, as usual, appear to be wildly misleading. In reality, the National Health Commission announced it would stop publishing new case data, but handed responsibility over to the Chinese CDC, which has already begun to publish data that we use in our daily report. All that said, the data has always been fake anyway. Isn't it rather astonishing that, all year, while reported cases have risen dramatically nationwide, there's been no growth at all in Wuhan, where it would be especially embarrassing (see page 3 of our daily report)? And since the first mega-lockdowns in Shanghai in the spring, none there either? Never fear. Premier Xi has called for "better hygiene" nationwide (presumably including Wuhan and Shanghai). It's all in "Recommended Reading."
Covid-2019
Sunday, December 25, 2022
"You will not fear the terror of night, nor the arrow that flies by day, nor the pestilence that stalks in the darkness, nor the plague that destroys at midday." Psalm 91
Other than that, no "Recommended Reading" today. Merry Christmas, friends.
Covid-2019
Saturday, December 24, 2022
In "Recommended Reading," media terror about explosive Covid case growth in China has reached new heights of paranoid delightfulness. There's even a "study" and a "model" that "experts warn" about showing 37 million cases EVERY DAY RIGHT NOW. Yes, yes, it's one of those speculations based the notion that for every patient who tests positive there are dozens of others without symptoms who don't even get tested, but have the bug nevertheless. No doubt directionally true (which only goes to show how relatively mild Covid is, if people don't even know they have it). In various well-conducted serological surveys in the US, the actual infection rate can be as much as ten times the reported one. But this scare-number for China amplifies the reported cases by a factor of 43,600. Yet it's being reported uncritically literally everywhere in the western media.
Covid-2019
Friday, December 23, 2022
In "Recommended Reading," our friends at the Wall Street Journal editorial page uphold their tradition of providing a fair and balanced platform for ideas across the political spectrum -- including, today, some ideas that are not themselves either fair or balanced. Ezekiel Emanuel, the public health apparatchik who never met a government intervention he didn't like, faults China for ending its "Zero Covid" lockdowns in favor of a strategy to just "let it rip." First, there is no evidence that lockdowns work to contain the spread. Second, there is no evidence that ending lockdowns increases spread. Third, and worst, this expression "let it rip" is just unscientific fear-mongering. It quotes Anthony Fauci, who used these pejorative words to discredit the Great Barrington Declaration, a safe-and-sane alternative to draconian lockdowns aimed at protecting the most vulnerable and letting everyone else get on with their lives.
Covid-2019
Thursday, December 22, 2022
In "Recommended Reading," a story about how "undercounted" Covid deaths in China will lead health authorities into disaster, by underestimating the threat. But the deaths aren't "undercounted." They are under-reported. That is to say, they are lied about to create the false public impression that all is well. Case counts are the same, as you can easily see on page 3 every day. Does anyone really believe that all year there have been no new cases in Wuhan? No, but it's convenient (but about like saying there is no chocolate in Hershey Pennsylvania). Don't worry that these official lies will lead to uncontrolled spread of Covid. As two and a half years of bitter failure world-wide has shown, there's no way to control it anyway (and at this point it is so non-lethal, it's of little consequence in the grand scheme of things). Thanks to a client for flagging this story!
Covid-2019
Wednesday, December 21, 2022
Just 5 new cases reported today in China. Ain't totalitarianism grand?
Meanwhile, in "Recommended Reading," our friend Alex Berenson continues to rub our noses in disturbing facts. He points to two new studies that suggest multiple doses of vaccines and boosters may indeed lower death rates from Covid. But both point to troubling evidence that the more shots you get, the more likely you will get infected in the first place. If true, then the cost-benefit decisions get very tricky indeed.
Covid-2019
Tuesday, December 20, 2022
The mysterious 500-a-day US Covid deaths just continues, month after month. But now cases are rising a little bit (not a "tripledemic," but they are rising a little bit. So arithmagically, the calculated case-fatality ratio is falling again.