Spending for capital goods (non-defense, ex-aircraft) defied the bearish consensus and rose to a new high. Personal spending beat expectations, too. Maybe the so-called banking crisis didn't matter after all. So the high-frequency and the mid-frequency data are both strong -- and there's supposed to be a recession?
A Few of Our Favorite Things
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Wednesday, April 26, 2023
The Housing Transaction Value Index remains weirdly strong, while other indicators falter a bit. Cap goods now flat for months, economic uncertainty rising and -- of course -- bank credit falling overall, and contracting for corporate borrowers.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Friday, March 24, 2023
It's too soon for the bank crisis to show up in mid-frequency indicators. That said, everything looks great. Oh, and what's that big uptick in housing activity? Maybe that post-pandemic boom really wasn't a bubble after all.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Monday, February 27, 2023
CAPEX continues to run at record levels, at least in nominal terms. But the pandemic housing boom is definitely over (for good or for ill). Housing transactions are back to the pre-pandemic trend, and below it as a share of nominal GDP.
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Thursday, January 26, 2023
Our Housing Transaction Value Index takes another downtick, consistent with the drop in residential investment growth shown in this morning's Q4 GDP. Cap goods orders about flat again -- not a sign of growth or animal spirits, to be sure, but stalled at a record-high level and not falling as is the usual pattern before a recession.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Friday, December 23, 2022
In the mid-frequency data, the most salient is our Housing Transaction Value Index. I suppose you could say it's crashing. Or you could say it has returned to a decade-long trend. Both are true.
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Wednesday, November 23, 2022
Capgoods orders uptick, not quite making new all-time highs. But our housing activity index continues to roll over hard.
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Thursday, October 27, 2022
Our search-inquiry tracker shows that Biden is getting more attention online than Trump (the president is tied with Kim Kardashian). Going into the mid-terms, that's probably not what the at-risk Democratic majority wants.
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Tuesday, September 27, 2022
Our Housing Transaction Value Aggregate is surprisingly higher on the month, driven by a surge in new home sales -- albeit at a lower average price. In other news, our Google search tracker has Biden, Trump and Kim Kardashian all tied (at very low levels of interest).
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Wednesday, August 24, 2022
This mid-frequency data is the best place to look for evidence of recession. The picture is mixed. Housing has cooled considerably, and small business sentiment is worse than in the pandemic. But CAPEX continues to grow to new all-time highs, and bank lending is accelerating.