New all-time highs for non-defense cap goods ex-aircraft. And our Housing Transaction Value Aggregates are diverging. Existing homes are dipping below trend, new homes well above it.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Our Housing Transaction Value Index falls slightly below trend for existing homes, remains above trend for new homes. Nominal cap good expenditures remain in the area of all-time highs, two years of inflation is taking its toll in real terms. Our "Google Trends" research shows Harris winning the war for public attention, ahead of Trump.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Monday, August 26, 2024
Housing transaction values, miraculously, hang in there above pre-pandemic trend levels. CAPEX remains stalled out at a high level. Bank loans are growing nicely. And small business optimism is on its third consecutive monthly uptick.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Housing transactions -- miraculously -- are percolating along exactly in tune with the pre-pandemic upward trend, despite all the manifest headwinds. Our "Google Trends" indicator of political engagement has perked up, as you'd expect. In a tumultuous month, Trump, Biden and Harris are all objects of fascination (and Trump leads among the three).
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Shocker (but not to us). Our index shows new and existing housing transactions still above pre-pandemic trends, despite headwinds that would seem to be insurmountable. Our post-pandemic boom continues to flummox the conventional wisdom.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Friday, May 24, 2024
New homes transaction value drops every-so-slightly below trend. But existing home transaction value, 84% of the market, mysteriously hangs in there above trend. To be sure, it's doing it with price, not volume -- but overall value is what matters.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Our Housing Transaction Value Aggregate continues above the pre-pandemic trend for both new and existing homes -- remarkable resiliency, considering an apparent crisis in affordability. Meanwhile, in our measurement of public attention around the upcoming election, no candidate seems to be able to capture any real mind-share (RFK Jr. is literally a zero).
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Shocker! The residential real estate market is supposed to be dead, dead, dead. But our Housing Transaction Value Aggregate has recovered back above the pre-pandemic trend for both new and existing homes. Meanwhile, another shocker: our Google Trends indices of interest in our esteemed presidential candidates shows that there is, in fact, no interest.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Surprising resiliency in housing, with both the new homes and existing homes components of our Housing Transaction Value Index rising, despite little relief on mortgage rates and spreads.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Existing home transactions fall a bit, new home transactions rise a bit. The housing market is stabilizing at a surprisingly and delightfully high level. Meanwhile, new all-time highs for capital goods expenditures.