Housing transaction values, miraculously, hang in there above pre-pandemic trend levels. CAPEX remains stalled out at a high level. Bank loans are growing nicely. And small business optimism is on its third consecutive monthly uptick.
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A Few of Our Favorite Things
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Housing transactions -- miraculously -- are percolating along exactly in tune with the pre-pandemic upward trend, despite all the manifest headwinds. Our "Google Trends" indicator of political engagement has perked up, as you'd expect. In a tumultuous month, Trump, Biden and Harris are all objects of fascination (and Trump leads among the three).
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Thursday, June 27, 2024
Shocker (but not to us). Our index shows new and existing housing transactions still above pre-pandemic trends, despite headwinds that would seem to be insurmountable. Our post-pandemic boom continues to flummox the conventional wisdom.
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Friday, May 24, 2024
New homes transaction value drops every-so-slightly below trend. But existing home transaction value, 84% of the market, mysteriously hangs in there above trend. To be sure, it's doing it with price, not volume -- but overall value is what matters.
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Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Our Housing Transaction Value Aggregate continues above the pre-pandemic trend for both new and existing homes -- remarkable resiliency, considering an apparent crisis in affordability. Meanwhile, in our measurement of public attention around the upcoming election, no candidate seems to be able to capture any real mind-share (RFK Jr. is literally a zero).
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Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Shocker! The residential real estate market is supposed to be dead, dead, dead. But our Housing Transaction Value Aggregate has recovered back above the pre-pandemic trend for both new and existing homes. Meanwhile, another shocker: our Google Trends indices of interest in our esteemed presidential candidates shows that there is, in fact, no interest.
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Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Surprising resiliency in housing, with both the new homes and existing homes components of our Housing Transaction Value Index rising, despite little relief on mortgage rates and spreads.
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Thursday, January 25, 2024
Existing home transactions fall a bit, new home transactions rise a bit. The housing market is stabilizing at a surprisingly and delightfully high level. Meanwhile, new all-time highs for capital goods expenditures.
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Friday, December 22, 2023
Downticks in the aggregate transaction volume of both new and existing homes -- no surprise. But the new homes remain above the rising pre-pandemic trend.
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Monday, November 27, 2023
Our Housing Transaction Value Index ticks down again. The existing homes component is below the pre-pandemic trend now, but holding above the post-pandemic correction. Existing homes tick down on the month, but continue to boom, firmly above the pre-pandemic trend.