A Few of Our Favorite Things

A Few of Our Favorite Things
Wednesday, July 27, 2022
Definitely signs of slowdown. Our Housing Activity Index falls again, further from its January peak (which was the stock market peak, too). Worst is small business optimism, which is now worse than its worst reading at the bottom of the pandemic depression. That said, a new high for capital goods orders. What an economy!
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Monday, June 27, 2022
A beat this morning in durable goods, but that backward-looking indicator is not the one we watch: forward looking new orders for non-defense capital goods made a new all-time high.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Wednesday, May 25, 2022
As the Fed normalizes, we're seeing data revealing where the Fed had previously been abnormal and where it hadn't. So we see a sharp drop in housing activity, yet a rise in capital goods orders.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Tuesday, April 26, 2022
A very mixed bag this month. Housing activity is miraculously hanging in there. CAPEX makes a new all-time high. But small business sentiment is deteriorating alarmingly.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Thursday, March 24, 2022
The high-frequency data continues to look amazing, but there's weakness in virtually all the mid-frequency data. Even our Housing Transaction Value Index and cap goods orders have ticked down. Dead parrot? Or just resting?
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Friday, February 25, 2022
Cap goods spending makes a new high (we had to rescale the chart). Housing transactions make a new high. And best of all, the inventory/sales ratio makes a visible lift-off from near all-time lows. The boom is very much intact in the mid-frequency indicators. 
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Thursday, January 27, 2022
The mid-frequency data is strong, but moderating from the torrid peaks of the last several months.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Thursday, December 23, 2021
The historic output gap remains to be filled, with the business inventories-to-sales ratio falling to a new cycle low. Bad news for inflation being rapidly transitory, but great news for future growth.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Wednesday, November 24, 2021
The boom is still on! Our housing activity value index makes a new high, and so do non-defense capital goods.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Wednesday, October 27, 2021
Capital goods shipments fell, but that's not what we track. We are interested in the future, and the good news is that capital goods orders rose to new all-time highs. Oh, and the post-pandemic housing boom is alive and well, too.

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