Our Housing Transaction Value Index cools slightly -- which is to say it has fallen from white-hot to red-hot.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
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Wednesday, November 25, 2020
Non-defense cap-goods orders (ex-aircraft) makes a new all-time high, at least in nominal terms.
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Tuesday, October 27, 2020
Capex jumps to a multi-year high, small-biz optimism surging, consumer debt ratios and housing transactions best ever -- it really is a V-shaped recovery.
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Friday, September 25, 2020
Housing transaction-value at a new all-time high. Cap-goods orders higher than pre-Covid. What letter of the alphabet is even better than a V?
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Wednesday, August 26, 2020
Who knew it would take a depression to bring our housing index back to within half a percent of its 2005 housing boom high?
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Monday, July 27, 2020
A vigorous V-shaped recovery is underway in our housing transaction-value index. Economic uncertainty indices falling sharply. Small business confidence restored. CAPEX bouncing back. Wow!
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Thursday, June 25, 2020
This data is valuable, but it is mid-frequency, so it is full of contradictions. The inventory/sales ratio has risen to the highest since the whopper recession of 1980-81, yet CAPEX shows its first post-virus uptick.
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Thursday, May 28, 2020
CAPEX and our housing index show big drops. But neither comes close to the 2008-2009 disasters. And this man-made recession is nearly over.
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Friday, April 24, 2020
It's a month of OMG macro econ charts. The weirdest of all is non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft, which actually rose in March.
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Wednesday, March 25, 2020
The virus crisis is showing hard in junk spreads -- but at least as of February housing has broken out to a new recovery high, and CAPEX is steady.