Our Housing Transaction Value Index takes another downtick, consistent with the drop in residential investment growth shown in this morning's Q4 GDP. Cap goods orders about flat again -- not a sign of growth or animal spirits, to be sure, but stalled at a record-high level and not falling as is the usual pattern before a recession.
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Friday, December 23, 2022
In the mid-frequency data, the most salient is our Housing Transaction Value Index. I suppose you could say it's crashing. Or you could say it has returned to a decade-long trend. Both are true.
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Wednesday, November 23, 2022
Capgoods orders uptick, not quite making new all-time highs. But our housing activity index continues to roll over hard.
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Thursday, October 27, 2022
Our search-inquiry tracker shows that Biden is getting more attention online than Trump (the president is tied with Kim Kardashian). Going into the mid-terms, that's probably not what the at-risk Democratic majority wants.
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Tuesday, September 27, 2022
Our Housing Transaction Value Aggregate is surprisingly higher on the month, driven by a surge in new home sales -- albeit at a lower average price. In other news, our Google search tracker has Biden, Trump and Kim Kardashian all tied (at very low levels of interest).
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Wednesday, August 24, 2022
This mid-frequency data is the best place to look for evidence of recession. The picture is mixed. Housing has cooled considerably, and small business sentiment is worse than in the pandemic. But CAPEX continues to grow to new all-time highs, and bank lending is accelerating.
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Wednesday, July 27, 2022
Definitely signs of slowdown. Our Housing Activity Index falls again, further from its January peak (which was the stock market peak, too). Worst is small business optimism, which is now worse than its worst reading at the bottom of the pandemic depression. That said, a new high for capital goods orders. What an economy!
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Monday, June 27, 2022
A beat this morning in durable goods, but that backward-looking indicator is not the one we watch: forward looking new orders for non-defense capital goods made a new all-time high.
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Wednesday, May 25, 2022
As the Fed normalizes, we're seeing data revealing where the Fed had previously been abnormal and where it hadn't. So we see a sharp drop in housing activity, yet a rise in capital goods orders.
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Tuesday, April 26, 2022
A very mixed bag this month. Housing activity is miraculously hanging in there. CAPEX makes a new all-time high. But small business sentiment is deteriorating alarmingly.