Capital goods shipments fell, but that's not what we track. We are interested in the future, and the good news is that capital goods orders rose to new all-time highs. Oh, and the post-pandemic housing boom is alive and well, too.
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Monday, September 27, 2021
Small business hiring plans rise to new all-time highs. But when will small-business hiring?
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Wednesday, August 25, 2021
The historic boom isn't just stimulus-driven consumption -- it's CAPEX, too. New orders for non-defense capital goods (ex-aircraft) eked out a new all-time high in July, on top of a what is already more than a year-long moonshot.
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Tuesday, July 27, 2021
Upticks in housing transactions, small business confidence and corporate CAPEX. This is supposed to be a growth scare?
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Thursday, June 24, 2021
A steady month -- surging housing activity and CAPEX orders maintain last month's high levels.
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Thursday, May 27, 2021
Want to know why we're going to have a transitory burst of inflation? Look no further than non-defense cap goods orders bursting out to new highs -- and business inventory/sales ratios at virtually tied with the record low set in the post-war boom year of 1950 (the year we've been using as our model for 2021, by the way).
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Monday, April 26, 2021
In the latest business inventory data, sales are up and inventories are down. This is the mismatch effect we've predicted, and it will lead to a short-term bump in the price level (which is not the same thing as inflation).
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Wednesday, March 24, 2021
After an historic run to new highs following the lockdown bottom, non-defense capgoods orders and housing transactions both cool off just a tiny bit.
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Thursday, February 25, 2021
The capital boom continues to explode -- non-defense capgoods ex-aircraft pushes out strongly to another all-time high, while housing transactions continue near their all-time highs.
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Thursday, January 28, 2021
The bad news is that small business confidence has now given up half its post-pandemic gains. The good news is that capital goods orders are flying to new all-time highs.