Big beats in claims move the implied unemployment rate to a new low. You can almost smell the economic weakening in the air, but it's really not showing up in the high-frequency indicators.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, March 17, 2022
Powell was right about one thing: the high frequency data -- which should be just starting to show and symptoms of shock from higher gasoline prices -- reveals an amazingly strong labor market. Beats in new and continuing claims send the implied unemployment rate to another new low below the pre-pandemic benchmark.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, March 10, 2022
The high-frequency data is all showing just a little chill in the air. The prospect of nuclear combat toe-to-toe with the Russkies will do that.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, March 3, 2022
Another new low for the claims-implied unemployment rate, even lower than before the pandemic!
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, February 24, 2022
Mission accomplished. The claims-implied unemployment rate has fallen to 1.27%, for the first time below the 1.35% achieved before the pandemic. Did Russia really have to attack Ukraine today? Just when things were going so well...
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, February 17, 2022
A big miss in new claims moves the implied unemployment rate up somewhat. But nowadays that week-lagged series isn't high-frequency enough. A better indicator of the end of the Omicron micro-recession is the huge resurgence in restaurant seatings -- 20 of 40 reporting states are above pre-pandemic levels.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, February 10, 2022
You can still see the imprint of Omicron in the high-frequency data. But jobless claims are calming down, and the implied unemployment rate is now within 2 bp of the prepandemic benchmark.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, February 3, 2022
As the peak of the Omicron wave recedes into the past, new claims fall (and beat the consensus). Continuing claims missed, but it was enough to drop the implied unemployment rate by a basis point.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, January 27, 2022
Continuing claims rise, new claims fall -- enough to slightly push down the implied unemployment rate despite the Omicron case-wave. Somewhat remarkable considering the deterioration in most high-frequency data.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, January 20, 2022
Omicron absenteeism strikes at last. Misses in both initial and continuing claims, and a rise in the claims-implied unemployment rate, match the deterioration in high-frequency data we've been seeing now for three weeks.