High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery

Yet more beats in new and continuing claims versus already low estimates. The labor market continues to be a house of brick defying all the huffing and puffing of our big bad central bank.

Okay, we're deep into "be careful what you wish for" territory here. New claims under 200,000 beat the consensus sharply, taking the implied unemployment rate even lower -- and all the other high-frequency data looking solid, too (when there's an increasingly deep consensus we are slipping into recession). What's a Fed chair to do? They told me central planning was going to be fun and easy...

Sorry, Jay. The economy just continues to "complicate the FOMC's effort" to cause a recession. Restaurants booming. Huge beat in claims. Where's the soft landing? Where's the landing at all?

Claims rise slightly, but beat expectations. So the implied unemployment rate rises by 1 bp. The Fed's tightening regime is "working"! In other news, Q3 real GDP was revised upward again t0 3.2% at an annual rate (the more the Fed tightens, the faster the economy grows). That puts us 4.4% above pre-pandemic output, with no more people working to produce it. Inflationary recession? No. It's our productivity-led boom.