If you insist on believing that too many people with jobs creates inflation, then you can blame another week of high-frequency data in which claims refuse to crack no matter what the Fed does -- and all those nasty inflation-producing workers insist on eating in restaurants and flying on airplanes despite admonishments from their betters.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, October 6, 2022
Oh joy. New claims and continuing claims overshot the consensus -- so hopefully that will satisfy Powell's appetite for human misery this week. Sadly (from Powell's perspective), while they missed, they are still at historically low levels. Life is good -- for the moment.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, September 29, 2022
Powell thinks joblessness fixes inflation. He'll be disappointed that new and continuing claims beat the consensus again, and that the claims-implied unemployment rate fell. Beatings will increase until morale improves.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, September 22, 2022
New claims and continuing claims low again, beat expectations again. The high-frequency data looks great across the board. The economy doesn't seem to be responding as planned to the Fed's sadistic policy program.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, September 15, 2022
"Weirdly resilient." That's what we call this economy, despite the Fed's best efforts to destroy the demand side in order to save the supply side or something like that. There's mostly wonderful in this week's high-frequency data. Do your worst next week, Jay.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, September 8, 2022
Not enough pain yet for the sadists at the Fed -- a nice beat in new claims lowers the implied unemployment rate again.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, September 1, 2022
I big beat in new claims, and a drop in the claims-implied unemployment rate. That's entirely too little pain for Dungeon Master Powell.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, August 25, 2022
Bad news this morning in unemployment claims. Both new and continuing beat the consensus. Too many people earning a living. Time for the Fed to announce a recession (for our own good) at Jackson Hole.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, August 18, 2022
Beats in new and continuing claims lower the implied unemployment rate -- good for people trying to make a living, but bad in terms of scaring the FOMC into pulling back from more big rate hikes.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, August 11, 2022
After two and a half years, the "CDC is streamlining its COVID-19 guidance... This guidance acknowledges that the pandemic is not over, but also helps us move to a point where COVID-19 no longer severely disrupts our daily lives." In other words, after all this time of disrupting our lives, it turns out they didn't have to?