All the whining on CNBC by online recruiting company executives seems to be, well, just whining. Based on yet another beat for both new and continuing claims, the labor market is showing no objective sign of weakness in the high-frequency data.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, February 23, 2023
The Fed admitted yesterday (in writing, in the February FOMC minutes) that their policies are likely to throw minorities out of work. But based on today's beats in new and continuing claims, and continued absence of signs of financial stress, it ain't happening at all. Yet.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, February 16, 2023
Another beat for new claims. Also, now every week on page 5, we introduce coverage of the Chicago Fed's Financial Conditions Index. There's nothing there now indicating financial stress that could set the stage for a slide into recession.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, February 9, 2023
Misses in new and continuing claims (the first in weeks) drive the implied unemployment rate up (okay, only by 1 bp). But it is cause for much rejoicing in the House of Powell.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, February 2, 2023
Yet more beats in new and continuing claims versus already low estimates. The labor market continues to be a house of brick defying all the huffing and puffing of our big bad central bank.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, January 26, 2023
So hard to make sense of the data, but the case for imminent recession is not bolstered by this morning's solid beat in jobless claims, with the implied unemployment rate falling once again. Daily forward earnings remain the most concerning indicator.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, January 19, 2023
Okay, we're deep into "be careful what you wish for" territory here. New claims under 200,000 beat the consensus sharply, taking the implied unemployment rate even lower -- and all the other high-frequency data looking solid, too (when there's an increasingly deep consensus we are slipping into recession). What's a Fed chair to do? They told me central planning was going to be fun and easy...
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, January 12, 2023
Beats in already low estimates for new and continuing jobless claims. Today's CPI makes it all the less likely the Fed will hike rates sufficiently to cause a recession. And these high-frequency labor numbers imply the Fed has not already caused one.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, January 5, 2023
Sorry, Jay. The economy just continues to "complicate the FOMC's effort" to cause a recession. Restaurants booming. Huge beat in claims. Where's the soft landing? Where's the landing at all?
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, December 29, 2022
A nice end to a nice year in high-frequency data. Other than a seasonal and weather-driven drop in rail-freight traffic, there continues to be no warning of recession.