Discount stores report the best year-over-year sales growth in over a year. But a miss by continuing claims drives the implied unemployment rate slightly higher (from an insanely low base).
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Wednesday, November 22, 2023
Big beats in new and continuing claims -- the leading edge of the labor market looks incredibly strong heading into the holidays. But here's more of a surprise: a big improvement in our bank stress indicator!
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, November 16, 2023
Quick! Call the recession cops! Misses in both new and continuing claims (enough to cause the claims-implied unemployment rate to soar by an astonishing 1 basis point).
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, November 9, 2023
All is well in the high-frequency data. New claims beat a bit. Continuing claims missed a bit. On net, the claims-implied unemployment rate went down.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, November 2, 2023
Misses in new and existing claims, but at ridiculously low numbers that don't change the ultra-low claims-implied unemployment rate one bit. All the data isn't in, but based on this and other labor market statistics for October, tomorrow's payroll report should slightly miss expectations for 180,000. But don't be too disappointed. That's still twice the number of Americans who organically enter work eligibility each month.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, October 26, 2023
After this morning's blockbuster low-frequency data from Q3 GDP, the high-frequency data is looking just as good. Claims missed slightly, but still crazy low, and the implied unemployment rate didn't budge. You can't end a business cycle without a breakout in claims, and we have the opposite.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, October 19, 2023
It's back to the lows of the year for unemployment claims. Sorry Jay, there's just not one thing in the high-frequency data to suggest that your campaign to cause a recession hasn't accidentally caused a boom (or at least not thwarted one).
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, October 12, 2023
No matter how low the consensus goes, new claims keeps beating. Amazing, considering that we've been in a recession for two years according to the conventional wisdom. But the best news is S&P 500 forward earnings estimates. It's touching the old all-time highs from June 2022 when the Fed first lost its mind, recovering from a more than 6% dip. That's the true recession indicator. You can argue there was one (though you didn't see it in payrolls). But you can't argue one is imminent.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, October 5, 2023
With higher interest rates, the recession drumbeat is loud and clear again. But the real beat is in new and continuing claims today. The labor market simply refuses to roll over.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, September 28, 2023
Yet another amazing beat in unemployment claims, and the claims-employed unemployment rate falls again. Are today's high interest rates hurting the economy? Or is an economy this strong driving those rates to begin with?