Brilliant beats in new and continuing claims move the implied unemployment rate lower, and confirm our ongoing call for no recession. The only problem is that, after yesterday, it's obvious that Jerome Powell insists on one.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, September 14, 2023
Bank credit starts to grow again, and is now at all-time highs. And nice beats in new and continuing claims drive a nice downtick in the implied unemployment rate.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, September 7, 2023
New jobless claims at the lowest in 62 weeks. Bank credit growing again. We've beaten inflation without even a soft landing. But... but... now comes the deflation.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, August 31, 2023
High-frequency banking data continues to improve, with new loans and leases since Silicon Valley Bank failed now at just under $50 billion. The problem is that over a typical six-month period it's three or four times that...
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, August 24, 2023
The high-frequency data is improving across the board, giving some credence to that crazy-seeming Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate. And according to Truflation, August CPI is coming in about flat!
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, August 17, 2023
A new feature on the last page: a running estimate from Truflation of this month's CPI, at an annual rate. Spoiler alert: it's 2.73%, just 23 bp above the Fed's CPI target.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, August 10, 2023
The most troubling thing in the high-frequency data remains the fact that there has been pretty much no growth in bank loans and leases since Silicon Valley Bank failed.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, August 3, 2023
Yes, it concerns us that the consensus is turning toward "no recession," where we've correctly been for 19 nervous months. But the high-frequency data continues to justify our view, with beats today in both new and continuing claims.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 27, 2023
The labor market continues to confound Powell, with beats in new and continuing claims that drive the implied unemployment rate to the lowest level since February.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 20, 2023
We were worried the hot weather would drive a spike in new claims, but no -- a nice beat, and a drop in the claims-implied unemployment rate. Of course the Fed will think this represents an inflationary emergency, even as the real-time Truflation gauge turns outright negative for the last 31 days.