High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery

High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, September 16, 2021
More evidence of hesitation in reopening-sensitive restaurant and airlines data. But a beat in continuing claims moves the implied unemployment rate down to a new recovery low at 2.1%. (And by the way, did you see that big beat in retail sales?)
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, September 9, 2021
New claims beat, continuing claims miss, but the implied unemployment rate falls to a new recovery low. Other data is very mixed -- just how big a threat has Delta been to Q3 reopening-driven growth?
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, September 2, 2021
Air travel continues to slump (all those flight cancellations?). But everything else is surprisingly resilient, especially nice beats in new and continuing claims that move the implied unemployment rate to a new recovery low.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, August 26, 2021
A visible sag in the key re-opening data, restaurant seatings and airline passengers -- but the claims-implied unemployment rate hangs in there at post-pandemic lows.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, August 19, 2021
What growth scare? New claims beat, and the implied unemployment rate falls to a new post-pandemic low.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, August 12, 2021
We're seeing a little softening in the most reopening-sensitive areas: air passengers and restaurant seatings. But new claims met strong expectations, and continuing claims beat a little -- the implied unemployment rate slips to a  new recovery low.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, August 5, 2021
Nice positive surprise for labor markets, but too late for tomorrow's jobs report. A big beat in continuing claims moves the implied unemployment rate all the way down to 2.4%, a new recovery low.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 29, 2021
A week-over-week improvement, to be sure. But we're still in a stagnant period thanks to the Delta scare.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 22, 2021
We were right to worry that the TrendMacro Social Distancing Index has gone the wrong way for the last two weeks. New claims miss. Continuing claims miss. The implied unemployment rate ticks up 4 bp to 2.71%.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 15, 2021
Our Social Distancing Index has stalled out in its march toward re-opening the economy as the Delta variant narrative has taken hold. Adding insult to illness, over the same period, more intense immobilization has been associated with more cases and fatalities, not less.

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