Claims miss, moving back to the top of the recent range. The "Truflation" real-time inflation gauge shows July CPI at-target, midway through the month.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 11, 2024
The disinflation continues, and both new and continuing claims beat for the first time in several weeks.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
New claims miss, remaining at a low level but slightly elevated from where they've been the last couple months (and the claims-implied unemployment rate actually falls by 1 bp). But the big high-frequency news continues to be in inflation. Our "Truflation" real-time estimate of CPI shows June closing out with outright deflation for the month at 1.07% (at an annual rate). So far in July it pencils out to 2.34% deflation.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, June 27, 2024
New claims beat for the first time in three weeks, and the little bump of two weeks ago is revised away. But the important thing is our trusty Truflation realtime CPI model -- with three days to go in June, which will be the second anniversary of the peak in US inflation, it looks like the month will show outright deflation. Nice set-up for the CPI release in two weeks.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Claims miss slightly, but fall from last week's surprise move higher. Truflation month-to-date June is coming in comfortably below the Fed's target.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, June 13, 2024
New claims rise to the highest level in 44 weeks -- still a low number, but directionally not a good thing. Continuing claims rise, but insignificantly -- so the claims-implied unemployment rate moves up only 6 bp to a ridiculously low 1.36%. In other news, the Producer Price Index more than confirms yesterday's great CPI news -- a dovish beat, and a big one, showing outright PPI deflation in May. We've updated yesterday's "Data Insights: CPI/PPI" for the new news (see the last two pages).
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, June 6, 2024
New and continuing claims miss, so the "labor market weakness" crowd that has been gathering all week on Wall Street will have something to talk about ahead of tomorrow's payrolls. Just remember that new claims are lower than they were four weeks ago (when they were already incredibly low).
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, May 30, 2024
A new all-time record set for TSA air-passenger clearances in a single day. We're back, baby. Meanwhile in low-frequency backward-looking data, Q1 core PCE inflation was revised lower.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Bank credit rises, systemic risk falls, new claims drop (and beat the consensus). Sorry, no hard landings today. We're fresh out.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
New and continuing claims miss again slightly, but last week's upward blip is almost entirely erased. The best news is that Truflation's realtime inflation monitor, which correctly picked up the Q1-2024 bump in inflation, has now reverted to outright deflation for May so far.