High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery

High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, August 6, 2020
The biggest beats for initial and continuing claims since the virus crisis began. Not clear that this late-July jump in the labor market will save tomorrow's jobs report, though. 
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 30, 2020
Definitely a little stall in the high-frequency data supporting the V-shaped recovery. New and continuing claims both moved higher, which means the claims-implied unemployment rate moved a little higher too, only the second time since the peak in May. 
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 23, 2020
New jobless claims rose for the first time since the March peak, but continuing claims fell more, which lowers the claims-implied unemployment rate. Social distancing declines this week, implying more willingness to engage in commerce, but it's still above the early-June lows. In our dashboard of hi-frequency data, rail-freight traffic is the first to make a complete v-shaped recovery.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 16, 2020
Another downtick in the claims-implied unemployment rate. But that's a week old! Our even higher-frequency data has slowed down a bit, possibly a response to the sensationalistic media coverage of the sun-belt Covid hot-spots. 
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 9, 2020
New claims beat the consensus for the first time in 11 weeks. Continuing claims are down, and the implied unemployment rate falls again. All good progress.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 2, 2020
The claims-implied unemployment rate falls slightly, but some of the high-frequency data seems to have stalled a bit in a week when everyone is yapping about the so-called "second wave."
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, June 25, 2020
The implied unemployment rate from claims ticks down again, and all our high-frequency indicators continue to point to a V-shaped recovery.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, June 18, 2020
New claims came in worse than expected. The implied unemployment rate is unchanged, but mobility data shows the economy on the move more and more.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, June 11, 2020
The implied unemployment rate falls to a new open-back-up low. And Rhode Island-- yes, Rhode Island -- becomes the first state with restaurant activity above last year's.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, June 4, 2020
High-frequency data from claims says the unemployment rate has fallen from 19% to 16%. Tomorrow's lagging jobs report will still say19%.

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