Claims rise slightly, but beat expectations. So the implied unemployment rate rises by 1 bp. The Fed's tightening regime is "working"! In other news, Q3 real GDP was revised upward again t0 3.2% at an annual rate (the more the Fed tightens, the faster the economy grows). That puts us 4.4% above pre-pandemic output, with no more people working to produce it. Inflationary recession? No. It's our productivity-led boom.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, December 15, 2022
Nice beats on already-low estimates for new and continuing claims move the implied-unemployment rate down slightly. Happy landings, Jay.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, December 8, 2022
New claims exactly at expectation, leaving the implied unemployment rate unchanged. No hard landing. No soft landing. No landing at all.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, December 1, 2022
Some Thanksgiving-week noise in the data, but the overarching good news is that the claims-implied unemployment rate ticked down after last week's little pop. The labor market in real-time is looking Fed-proof.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Wednesday, November 23, 2022
A miss in claims, and a sharp uptick in implied unemployment to the highest level since March. Noise? Holiday-week distortion? Or first step to recession? Only her central banker knows for sure.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, November 17, 2022
This morning James Bullard called for a 7% policy rate -- because he doesn't like the fact that the data, including today's beats in new jobless claims, isn't showing signs of recession. He might want to note, instead, that year-on-year inflation has been falling steadily since June.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, November 10, 2022
The only soft spot in the high-frequency data is year-ahead S&P 500 forward earnings. It's not trivial to see it sagging a bit -- but nothing else we track is sagging at all.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, November 3, 2022
Powell to high-frequency data: "I'll huff and I'll puff and I'll push on a string." After 4-1/2 months of extreme rate hikes, no sign of weakness.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, October 27, 2022
With this week's edition, we say goodbye to an old friend. Google has discontinued publishing mobility data from tracking cellphones. A sign that the Covid crisis is over (or that Google is having to cut back on non-revenue generating non-necessities).
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, October 20, 2022
There's some evidence of cooling -- not yet chilling -- in some of the data. But the all-important labor market, as reflected in jobless claims, remains "weirdly resilient" no matter how much the Fed tries to poison it.