Banking conditions continue to ease. Claims rose a bit, and missed. But the claims-implied unemployment rate ticked lower. Hanging in there...
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, April 13, 2023
No recession yet in the high-frequency data. The Chicago Fed's financial stress index loosens up a bit. And there was a small miss in new claims, but a small beat in continuing claims. Meanwhile, a very dovish beat in the Producer Price Index, across all categories (we've updated yesterday's CPI report to show it).
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, April 6, 2023
Jobless claims fell this week (which is good). But upward revisions make claims look worse than previously known. Not a loud-and-clear recession signal, but definitely a directionally negative development, with the implied unemployment rate now gently rising from its long base.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, March 30, 2023
An important new feature on page 5: we track the Fed's weekly reports on bank assets and liabilities, to follow the flight of deposits from small banks to large, and the banks' rush to liquidity and replacement liabilities. The evidence as it stands: lots of stress visible, but the system is working.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, March 23, 2023
We need more bank failures, apparently. New claims for unemployment benefits beat the consensus, and dropped to a three-week low. But I suppose we should mention that the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index did tighten a bit (but it's still loose).
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, March 16, 2023
It's too soon to see any SVB effect in new or continuing claims. That said, they both beat. There remains simply no data showing that the economy is heading into recession.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, March 9, 2023
Praise the Lord. 16,000 more unfortunate souls applied for jobless benefits than the consensus expected. First miss in many weeks. Praise the Lord! Now demand will be weakened (because those 16,000 will go hungry) and inflation will go down. Oh. Wait. Those same people can no longer produce. So inflation will go up. Hmmmm....
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, March 2, 2023
All the whining on CNBC by online recruiting company executives seems to be, well, just whining. Based on yet another beat for both new and continuing claims, the labor market is showing no objective sign of weakness in the high-frequency data.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, February 23, 2023
The Fed admitted yesterday (in writing, in the February FOMC minutes) that their policies are likely to throw minorities out of work. But based on today's beats in new and continuing claims, and continued absence of signs of financial stress, it ain't happening at all. Yet.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, February 16, 2023
Another beat for new claims. Also, now every week on page 5, we introduce coverage of the Chicago Fed's Financial Conditions Index. There's nothing there now indicating financial stress that could set the stage for a slide into recession.