Recession? What recession? Beats in new and continuing claims drive the implied unemployment rate to a new low at 1.04%, below the already low 1.33% before the pandemic.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, May 26, 2022
The claims-implied unemployment rate ticks up slightly -- but restaurant seatings nationwide are above the pre-pandemic level. High-frequency data just doesn't support a recession scenario.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, May 19, 2022
Much-needed good news: our weighted Social Distancing Index still hasn't fallen back to the December lows, but now many individual states are showing less "stay-at-home" behavior than before the pandemic. The least locked-down states -- an odd assortment led by the odd-couple of Delaware and Alaska -- are now less locked down than ever.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, May 5, 2022
Whatever the markets are looking at today it sure ain't the high-frequency data -- it all looks great!
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, April 28, 2022
Low-frequency GDP prints negative -- and at the same moment, high-frequency claims data shows an even lower implied unemployment rate than before the pandemic. Hmmmm....
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, April 21, 2022
New claims miss slightly, continuing claims beat slightly. The data looks good, but gasoline consumption and automobile freight remain the laggards.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, April 14, 2022
The high-frequency data looks amazingly good -- but there was an uptick in new claims, and the implied unemployment rate did move up a couple basis points, from an unbelievable low level.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, April 7, 2022
All the high-frequency data is looking weirdly good -- especially gasoline consumption which, despite the price, has made a new post-pandemic high.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, March 31, 2022
New claims miss, continuing claims beat. Altogether, the implied unemployment rate makes a new low, pointing to another big jobs report tomorrow.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, March 24, 2022
Big beats in claims move the implied unemployment rate to a new low. You can almost smell the economic weakening in the air, but it's really not showing up in the high-frequency indicators.