Big miss for new claims, but a bigger beat for continuing claims. So the claim-implied unemployment rate drops sharply, to within a mere 6 bp of its pre-pandemic low. But Omicron is taking its toll -- all our high-frequency indicators or remobilization are in an alarming lull.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, January 6, 2022
Good news for remobilization and for the non-green energy economy -- US gasoline consumption marks new high above the pre-pandemic level for the first time!
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, December 30, 2021
Nice beats in initial and continuing claims bring the implied unemployment rate down to 1.45%, a new recovery low just 10 bp above the pre-pandemic level. Happy New Year indeed!
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, December 23, 2021
A mixed pre-Christmas week. No change in the claims-implied unemployment rate, while restaurant seatings fall and air travel rises.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, December 16, 2021
A little miss in initial claims. A good beat in continuing. So the claims-implied unemployment rate falls back to the post-pandemic low at 1.56%.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, December 9, 2021
New claims beat big, but continuing claims missed -- and rose. So the claims-implied unemployment rate ticked up for the first time in many weeks, to 1.64%.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, December 2, 2021
Nice beats in new and continuing claims, once again bringing the implied unemployment rate to a new post-pandemic low. Over the holiday week personal mobility fell, but air traffic made a new recovery high, and discount and department store sales rose to new year-on-year highs. Boom on!
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Wednesday, November 24, 2021
The high-frequency data continue to look good. Nationally, restaurant seatings are basically back to their prepandemic levels. Initial claims beat strongly, but continuing claims missed a bit -- together, they drove the implied unemployment rate to a new post-pandemic low.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, November 18, 2021
The high-frequency data continues to look better, including a sharp new low in claims-implied unemployment -- even as Covid cases gently rise in the US.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Wednesday, November 10, 2021
Claims miss a bit -- but expectations aside, the improvement was enough to eke out yet another new low in the claims-implied unemployment rate.