The game is afoot! The claims-implied unemployment rate falls to a new recovery low at 3.7%.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, January 28, 2021
Low-frequency and lagging GDP for Q4 disappointed, but the high-frequency data looks great, with the claims-implied unemployment rate making a new low.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, January 21, 2021
Nice beats for claims, with the implied unemployment rate revised lower to 4.24%. Meanwhile, the US Social Distancing Index, happily, is now in a solid post-holiday downtrend.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, January 14, 2021
A surprise bump in new and continuing claims. Something tells us this will get mentioned more than a couple times in discussions about new "stimulus."
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, January 7, 2021
Restaurants, air travel and retail definitely had a moment over New Year's week.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, December 31, 2020
We predicted long ago, when the lights of the world were going out, that the jobless claims-implied unemployment rate would end the year at 4%. Close enough, at 4.14%. Happy New Year!
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Wednesday, December 23, 2020
Our Housing Transaction Value Index cools slightly -- which is to say it has fallen from white-hot to red-hot.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, December 17, 2020
Data continues to be sluggish, but the claims-employed unemployment rate managed to fall, and social distancing continues to back off its Thanksgiving peak.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, December 10, 2020
The increase in social distancing we've observed has spilled over into the labor market, with the claims-implied unemployment rate rising from 4.3% to 4.5%. This is the first weekly rise since early September.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, December 3, 2020
Mobility has fallen sharply amid rising Covid cases. But the high-frequency dashboard looks great, including new and continuing claims beating smartly, and the implied unemployment rate falling to a new low of 4.3%.