New claims missed a little, continuing claims beat a little (even with revisions). So the implied unemployment rate falls to a new recovery low of 4.8%. Other high-frequency data has stalled out, along with the Social Distancing Index.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, November 12, 2020
Even with a new virus flare-up, the data continues to confirm a strong V-shaped recovery, with the claims-implied unemployment rate falling to 5.1%.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, November 5, 2020
Continuing claims continue to fall, and new claims are about steady. So the implied unemployment rate has fallen to an astonishing 5.5%.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, October 29, 2020
Some of our high-frequency data has stalled due to the blow to confidence when Trump tested positive for Covid. But not the labor market, with the claims-implied unemployment rate dipping below 6%.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, October 22, 2020
Despite a jump in national social distancing because of Trump's diagnosis, a huge beat in new and continuing claims, lowering the implied unemployment rate to 6.2%.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, October 15, 2020
New claims rise, miss expectations. But continuing claims fall hard in this dynamic V-shaped recovery, taking the implied unemployment rate to a new low.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, October 8, 2020
New claims didn't fall enough to satisfy the consensus or the media. But continuing claims blew through the consensus, lowering the implied unemployment rate to a new recovery low.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, October 1, 2020
Department store same-store-sales manage to uptick to new recovery highs. The V lives!
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, September 24, 2020
New jobless claims edge up and miss the consensus. Continuing claims missed too, but still fell -- enough to lower the implied unemployment rate to 9.2% from 9.3%.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, September 10, 2020
A miss in new and continuing claims, with the implied unemployment rate upticking -- ever so slightly -- for only the second time since the worst. Labor Day drove new recovery highs in air travel and restaurant seatings.