It's officially a recession now, not a depression: the claims-implied unemployment rate falls below 10%. Meanwhile, air travel is stagnant, but dining picks up and even department stores show signs of life.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, August 27, 2020
Who knew there was so much optimism? Initial and continuing claims missed rosy expectations, but both fell, bringing the implied unemployment rate to a new crisis low.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, August 20, 2020
New claims up, missing consensus. But continuing claims were down more, lowering the implied unemployment rate to a new low at 11%.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, August 13, 2020
That's two consensus-beating new claims reports in a row, and the first one under a million since the virus crisis began.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, August 6, 2020
The biggest beats for initial and continuing claims since the virus crisis began. Not clear that this late-July jump in the labor market will save tomorrow's jobs report, though.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 30, 2020
Definitely a little stall in the high-frequency data supporting the V-shaped recovery. New and continuing claims both moved higher, which means the claims-implied unemployment rate moved a little higher too, only the second time since the peak in May.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 23, 2020
New jobless claims rose for the first time since the March peak, but continuing claims fell more, which lowers the claims-implied unemployment rate. Social distancing declines this week, implying more willingness to engage in commerce, but it's still above the early-June lows. In our dashboard of hi-frequency data, rail-freight traffic is the first to make a complete v-shaped recovery.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 16, 2020
Another downtick in the claims-implied unemployment rate. But that's a week old! Our even higher-frequency data has slowed down a bit, possibly a response to the sensationalistic media coverage of the sun-belt Covid hot-spots.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 9, 2020
New claims beat the consensus for the first time in 11 weeks. Continuing claims are down, and the implied unemployment rate falls again. All good progress.
High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery
Thursday, July 2, 2020
The claims-implied unemployment rate falls slightly, but some of the high-frequency data seems to have stalled a bit in a week when everyone is yapping about the so-called "second wave."