The increase in social distancing we've observed has spilled over into the labor market, with the claims-implied unemployment rate rising from 4.3% to 4.5%. This is the first weekly rise since early September.
High-Freq Data Monitor
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, December 3, 2020
Mobility has fallen sharply amid rising Covid cases. But the high-frequency dashboard looks great, including new and continuing claims beating smartly, and the implied unemployment rate falling to a new low of 4.3%.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Wednesday, November 25, 2020
A new high for air passengers as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday, and the claims-implied unemployment rate falls yet again. It's a struggle, but the V-shaped recovery is marching on.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, November 19, 2020
New claims missed a little, continuing claims beat a little (even with revisions). So the implied unemployment rate falls to a new recovery low of 4.8%. Other high-frequency data has stalled out, along with the Social Distancing Index.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, November 12, 2020
Even with a new virus flare-up, the data continues to confirm a strong V-shaped recovery, with the claims-implied unemployment rate falling to 5.1%.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, November 5, 2020
Continuing claims continue to fall, and new claims are about steady. So the implied unemployment rate has fallen to an astonishing 5.5%.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 29, 2020
Some of our high-frequency data has stalled due to the blow to confidence when Trump tested positive for Covid. But not the labor market, with the claims-implied unemployment rate dipping below 6%.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 22, 2020
Despite a jump in national social distancing because of Trump's diagnosis, a huge beat in new and continuing claims, lowering the implied unemployment rate to 6.2%.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 15, 2020
New claims rise, miss expectations. But continuing claims fall hard in this dynamic V-shaped recovery, taking the implied unemployment rate to a new low.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 8, 2020
New claims didn't fall enough to satisfy the consensus or the media. But continuing claims blew through the consensus, lowering the implied unemployment rate to a new recovery low.