New claims didn't fall enough to satisfy the consensus or the media. But continuing claims blew through the consensus, lowering the implied unemployment rate to a new recovery low.
High-Freq Data Monitor
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 1, 2020
Department store same-store-sales manage to uptick to new recovery highs. The V lives!
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, September 24, 2020
New jobless claims edge up and miss the consensus. Continuing claims missed too, but still fell -- enough to lower the implied unemployment rate to 9.2% from 9.3%.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, September 10, 2020
A miss in new and continuing claims, with the implied unemployment rate upticking -- ever so slightly -- for only the second time since the worst. Labor Day drove new recovery highs in air travel and restaurant seatings.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, September 3, 2020
It's officially a recession now, not a depression: the claims-implied unemployment rate falls below 10%. Meanwhile, air travel is stagnant, but dining picks up and even department stores show signs of life.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, August 27, 2020
Who knew there was so much optimism? Initial and continuing claims missed rosy expectations, but both fell, bringing the implied unemployment rate to a new crisis low.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, August 20, 2020
New claims up, missing consensus. But continuing claims were down more, lowering the implied unemployment rate to a new low at 11%.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, August 13, 2020
That's two consensus-beating new claims reports in a row, and the first one under a million since the virus crisis began.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, August 6, 2020
The biggest beats for initial and continuing claims since the virus crisis began. Not clear that this late-July jump in the labor market will save tomorrow's jobs report, though.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, July 30, 2020
Definitely a little stall in the high-frequency data supporting the V-shaped recovery. New and continuing claims both moved higher, which means the claims-implied unemployment rate moved a little higher too, only the second time since the peak in May.