Data continues to be sluggish, but the claims-employed unemployment rate managed to fall, and social distancing continues to back off its Thanksgiving peak.
High-Freq Data Monitor
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, December 10, 2020
The increase in social distancing we've observed has spilled over into the labor market, with the claims-implied unemployment rate rising from 4.3% to 4.5%. This is the first weekly rise since early September.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, December 3, 2020
Mobility has fallen sharply amid rising Covid cases. But the high-frequency dashboard looks great, including new and continuing claims beating smartly, and the implied unemployment rate falling to a new low of 4.3%.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Wednesday, November 25, 2020
A new high for air passengers as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday, and the claims-implied unemployment rate falls yet again. It's a struggle, but the V-shaped recovery is marching on.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, November 19, 2020
New claims missed a little, continuing claims beat a little (even with revisions). So the implied unemployment rate falls to a new recovery low of 4.8%. Other high-frequency data has stalled out, along with the Social Distancing Index.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, November 12, 2020
Even with a new virus flare-up, the data continues to confirm a strong V-shaped recovery, with the claims-implied unemployment rate falling to 5.1%.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, November 5, 2020
Continuing claims continue to fall, and new claims are about steady. So the implied unemployment rate has fallen to an astonishing 5.5%.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 29, 2020
Some of our high-frequency data has stalled due to the blow to confidence when Trump tested positive for Covid. But not the labor market, with the claims-implied unemployment rate dipping below 6%.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 22, 2020
Despite a jump in national social distancing because of Trump's diagnosis, a huge beat in new and continuing claims, lowering the implied unemployment rate to 6.2%.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 15, 2020
New claims rise, miss expectations. But continuing claims fall hard in this dynamic V-shaped recovery, taking the implied unemployment rate to a new low.