A bigger than expected improvement in new claims drives the implied unemployment rate to a new recovery low at 3.6%. Meanwhile, the Polar Vortex works its mischief on rail freight loadings.
High-Freq Data Monitor
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, February 18, 2021
Other than air travel passengers, our highest-frequency data really isn't showing much of an effect from the Polar Vortex.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Wednesday, February 10, 2021
Another week, a little further recovery. Claims didn't quite live up to expectations, but the implied unemployment rate did what it had to do -- fell to a new recovery low.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, February 4, 2021
The game is afoot! The claims-implied unemployment rate falls to a new recovery low at 3.7%.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, January 28, 2021
Low-frequency and lagging GDP for Q4 disappointed, but the high-frequency data looks great, with the claims-implied unemployment rate making a new low.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, January 21, 2021
Nice beats for claims, with the implied unemployment rate revised lower to 4.24%. Meanwhile, the US Social Distancing Index, happily, is now in a solid post-holiday downtrend.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, January 14, 2021
A surprise bump in new and continuing claims. Something tells us this will get mentioned more than a couple times in discussions about new "stimulus."
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, January 7, 2021
Restaurants, air travel and retail definitely had a moment over New Year's week.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, December 31, 2020
We predicted long ago, when the lights of the world were going out, that the jobless claims-implied unemployment rate would end the year at 4%. Close enough, at 4.14%. Happy New Year!
High-Freq Data Monitor
Wednesday, December 23, 2020
Our Housing Transaction Value Index cools slightly -- which is to say it has fallen from white-hot to red-hot.