Markets are disturbed by increasing talk of new lockdowns in Europe. Justifiably so -- the last lockdowns didn't help, otherwise why would we need new ones (which won't help)? We're hoping experience will prevail, and that this is mostly politicized talk.
Covid-2019
Covid-2019
Tuesday, October 27, 2020
New US cases stay high, as testing remains at record levels. Yesterday less than 2% of new cases were hospitalized, US fatalities barely topped 500 and the cumulative case-fatality rate continues to fall.
Covid-2019
Monday, October 26, 2020
There's an autumn flare-up of cases everywhere, but the continent chart on page 1 shows clearly that Europe is the dominant epicenter. Still, fatalities amazingly low, with no single country reporting even 500 yesterday.
Covid-2019
Sunday, October 25, 2020
The modelers at the University of Washington's IHME, who used to lead the alarmist brigade, continue to revise *lower* their forecast for US fatalities, even as new cases rise to new highs. We congratulate them on their honest effort to conform their forecasts to a new fact: the declining lethality of Covid-19.
Covid-2019
Saturday, October 24, 2020
A new record for daily confirmed new cases in the US. But also a new record for the number of daily tests. There's a strong connection, but not a perfect one. We know things are worsening, because the test-positivity rate is rising. But it's rising from near-record lows, and it's still at a low 7.4%. So we have a cause of concern, but not for fear. There's a difference.
Covid-2019
Friday, October 23, 2020
Total US new cases approaching the July highs, but fatalities under 1,000, as they are everywhere in the world.
Covid-2019
Thursday, October 22, 2020
US tests fall by more than a quarter from an all-time high above 2 million per day. Maybe the test binge was triggered by Trump's case, and now that he and his colleagues are well, the urgency is off.
Covid-2019
Wednesday, October 21, 2020
In late April, the world's cumulative case fatality rate from Covid-19 was above 7%. Over that last two weeks, amidst a sharp rise in cases in many parts of the world, it has been 1.85%
Covid-2019
Tuesday, October 20, 2020
US testing flies to new highs at 2.1 million -- that's two thirds of a percent of the population tested in a single day. To be sure there are hotspots, but nationwide the test-positivity rate is a low 5.3%.
Covid-2019
Monday, October 19, 2020
The modelers at the University of Washington's IHME have once again lowered their estimate for cumulative US Covid-19 fatalities, by another 5,000. Someone tell Savannah Guthrie.