The US reports the usual end-of-week increase in new cases. It is aggravated by Arizona, which is reclassifying the results of past rapid-result antigen tests as positives, and dropping them into the current statistics. (We have smoothed this false surge out of the charts.) Meanwhile, Nashville health authorities are caught on tape fudging the numbers (the ones that aren't sufficiently scary, that is).
Covid-2019
Covid-2019
Thursday, September 17, 2020
New US cases now at multi-month lows. New Europe cases at multi-month highs, but governments are foreswearing new lockdowns. Worldwide still under 1 million fatalities, about 1 basis point of world population.
Covid-2019
Wednesday, September 16, 2020
Today Texas surpassed New York for cumulative cases as a share of population, 231 bp versus 229 bp (Florida and Arizona beat NY weeks ago). But NY is far worse in fatalities, almost three times Texas. This shows the "casedemic" character of the summer flare-up: lots of cases, relatively few fatalities.
Covid-2019
Tuesday, September 15, 2020
Another day of global progress, with new cases falling on all continents. The US test-positivity rate falls to a record low 4%.
Covid-2019
Monday, September 14, 2020
After Friday's new high for new cases worldwide, a sharp pullback. Only India reporting more than 1,000 fatalities. US fatalities fall to under 400. In "Recommended Reading," the New York Times reports that testing anomalies are making Texans not trust government (they have obviously never been to Texas).
Covid-2019
Sunday, September 13, 2020
US fatalities fall back to well under 1,000. Meanwhile, the invincible modelers in Washington upgrade predicted US daily fatalities to 2,915.
Covid-2019
Saturday, September 12, 2020
World new cases pass 300,000. Why has China been left out of the "casedemic" this summer around the world -- lots of new cases, few fatalities -- starting in the US and now migrating to Europe? One big explanation is that China doesn't report asymptomatic cases, and every other nation does.
Covid-2019
Friday, September 11, 2020
Friday's always the worst day in the weekly cycle of new-case reporting. But no excuses -- world new cases made a new record at 297,000. It's still a "casedemic" this time, with lots of cases and far fewer deaths than in March and April.
Covid-2019
Thursday, September 10, 2020
It's unanimous. Our most reliable indicator, days-to-double-fatalities, is widening out in every jurisdiction we track. The spread of Covid-2019 is now definitely sub-exponential everywhere.
Covid-2019
Wednesday, September 9, 2020
It's mid-week, and new cases usually rise sharply at this point for some unknown reason. But it's very muted, and again only India is reporting over 1,000 fatalities.